***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.8 5.3 0.2 53.3 51.6 4.4 5.7 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.5 5.2 0.3 54.2 52.8 4.8 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.8 5.3 0.1 52.2 51.1 6.7 7.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.4 2.3 -0.3 42.2 45.8 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.9 3.9 2.8 -0.4 42.5 44.6 2.9 4.7 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.1 -0.1 -0.8 34.5 39.8 1.7 3.2 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.1 5.2 0.3 56.0 53.1 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -2.9 -2.8 -0.3 -1.0 33.4 38.6 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.5 2.8 -0.4 42.7 44.5 4.1 5.8 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.5 5.0 0.7 -0.8 36.5 40.2 4.4 5.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.4 1.9 -0.7 37.8 40.8 3.9 5.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.9 0.9 -0.7 35.8 41.1 2.5 3.5 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.6 2.7 0.6 -0.9 32.6 38.3 2.7 4.5 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.4 2.7 -0.5 39.9 44.1 4.5 5.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.2 3.6 -0.1 45.2 47.5 4.4 5.5 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.8 4.2 1.3 -0.7 35.4 41.1 4.0 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.7 5.0 0.3 54.1 52.5 5.1 5.6 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.6 2.1 0.3 -0.7 36.0 41.8 1.7 3.0 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.4 5.1 0.2 52.5 52.5 4.4 5.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -1.3 -0.2 -1.9 -1.0 33.9 39.7 -0.3 0.3 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.3 4.3 -0.2 47.0 47.4 3.9 5.3 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.6 5.1 4.9 0.1 51.6 51.6 4.2 5.1 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.2 4.8 0.1 49.9 51.1 4.3 5.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.7 5.0 2.6 -0.4 40.4 44.6 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.2 4.1 -0.1 50.9 49.3 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.1 2.8 0.1 -0.8 34.8 40.1 2.7 4.5 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.7 4.8 0.1 52.3 50.5 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.4 2.6 2.5 -0.3 41.3 44.7 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 1.0 1.6 -0.7 -1.0 33.9 39.6 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.2 5.3 0.3 55.6 52.9 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------