***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.5 3.5 -0.6 39.4 40.1 2.5 4.2 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.3 3.8 3.4 -0.3 42.7 44.4 3.4 3.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.4 3.7 -0.4 40.6 43.0 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.1 -0.7 0.8 -0.6 37.7 39.5 -1.2 0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 1.7 1.2 1.6 -0.8 37.3 38.1 1.1 3.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.1 -0.9 -0.4 41.6 42.7 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 4.6 4.0 3.5 -0.3 42.3 44.7 3.5 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -4.8 -3.7 -1.1 -0.6 41.4 41.8 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.3 2.0 -0.2 47.1 46.8 2.9 4.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.2 -0.2 -0.6 39.8 41.0 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.3 1.4 -0.3 43.9 44.5 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.1 0.1 -0.5 42.1 41.9 0.8 2.6 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 3.9 2.1 0.1 -0.7 38.7 40.6 1.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 4.7 4.4 1.7 -0.2 44.6 45.9 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.5 3.6 2.7 0.0 47.0 47.4 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.2 0.6 -0.6 38.1 39.9 2.9 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.7 4.4 3.2 -0.2 43.9 44.9 3.5 4.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.3 -0.5 -0.4 41.3 43.4 0.1 1.7 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.4 3.8 3.5 -0.2 43.1 45.7 3.5 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 -2.8 -2.1 -2.6 -0.8 36.0 39.8 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.7 3.2 3.0 -0.5 40.5 41.9 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 3.8 3.5 3.6 -0.1 44.0 46.6 3.1 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 3.8 3.3 3.4 0.0 43.6 47.6 2.3 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.6 1.8 -0.2 45.2 45.7 2.8 3.7 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.4 2.7 2.4 -1.1 33.2 33.8 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.8 2.0 -0.7 -0.9 36.9 38.1 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.2 3.5 2.9 -1.0 35.5 36.1 2.9 5.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 3.0 1.6 1.4 -0.4 41.2 42.8 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -1.2 0.7 -1.5 -0.4 42.2 43.8 0.0 0.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.1 4.3 3.7 -0.3 42.2 44.8 3.8 4.8 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------