***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 71.6 149.3 81.5 74.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 49.5 54.9 68.1 143.1 79.6 73.0 27.3 38.1 47.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 66.7 75.6 71.8 147.3 81.7 75.1 43.0 49.0 63.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 76.7 88.2 83.0 148.6 85.5 76.0 56.2 67.8 73.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 65.8 77.9 79.0 142.5 82.7 74.8 43.5 52.1 62.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 65.2 72.4 94.0 137.0 80.9 76.3 38.9 44.3 66.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 51.8 59.3 66.6 141.5 79.0 71.9 22.5 35.0 48.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 96.2 113.7 82.3 137.8 82.0 75.7 67.1 76.3 88.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 61.3 82.0 78.0 143.4 85.6 75.8 37.8 50.0 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 75.6 80.9 82.7 137.3 82.9 75.2 43.3 64.7 78.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 65.9 74.8 75.9 141.1 81.9 74.8 39.7 52.8 69.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 61.9 78.4 75.7 144.2 83.9 76.9 31.9 48.9 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 74.3 83.2 85.8 141.5 81.5 76.8 47.0 54.3 66.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 80.5 91.2 83.6 136.9 83.1 74.5 53.5 64.9 73.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 68.9 84.1 83.8 161.7 89.3 79.7 39.2 45.6 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 66.4 74.3 81.0 141.9 81.3 76.1 42.0 53.8 62.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 50.7 56.2 65.0 137.1 77.3 70.7 25.3 35.7 50.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 62.7 70.6 88.4 134.1 81.5 74.5 41.2 49.7 59.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 58.9 67.0 69.6 143.5 81.3 73.7 28.3 38.7 56.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 68.9 77.3 99.6 134.4 80.1 75.5 40.7 51.1 68.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 60.8 81.0 73.6 146.1 83.4 74.6 34.8 41.4 61.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 52.3 55.5 67.1 136.7 79.3 72.1 33.6 42.7 50.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 59.1 71.3 72.5 142.1 84.0 74.3 40.0 47.6 57.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 70.3 79.8 81.6 138.4 81.9 74.7 44.7 57.8 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 59.6 65.8 80.9 142.6 79.8 73.0 47.8 51.4 58.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 61.3 70.5 85.1 148.8 82.8 80.0 40.4 47.3 60.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 60.5 67.1 77.4 143.9 79.8 73.4 42.8 47.8 62.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 64.8 78.9 83.4 152.8 85.7 78.2 41.3 47.6 57.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 92.9 106.8 91.6 133.2 80.8 74.2 56.7 67.9 86.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 50.5 61.5 69.2 145.5 81.1 73.9 24.6 35.0 53.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------