***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 13.8 109.0 67.1 53.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.7 13.3 101.9 61.7 53.2 6.2 8.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.0 22.4 13.9 109.8 65.3 55.7 7.1 13.1 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 18.1 15.9 15.6 105.1 62.5 52.5 11.9 15.4 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.0 17.6 15.6 107.0 61.1 53.4 7.2 12.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 7.6 15.2 20.9 116.0 63.7 57.5 8.1 11.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.8 13.0 100.5 59.9 52.0 5.0 8.4 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.3 16.5 107.2 59.2 53.3 22.5 25.3 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.0 22.1 15.3 110.5 65.0 55.6 6.9 14.1 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.2 16.8 109.3 61.4 55.1 10.5 16.5 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 14.9 105.5 58.4 52.8 9.8 13.7 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.7 14.5 106.8 59.8 52.0 9.5 14.5 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 19.0 18.5 17.5 111.0 62.3 54.1 8.3 16.8 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.4 23.3 16.5 106.6 64.2 54.9 10.2 17.2 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 13.7 13.8 104.9 64.0 53.6 5.2 9.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.8 16.1 107.5 60.1 53.0 10.0 15.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.0 11.2 12.6 97.7 60.5 51.2 3.4 8.6 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 19.5 18.3 18.4 112.4 61.5 56.3 9.5 17.0 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.9 13.6 104.3 63.5 54.3 6.8 9.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 16.3 15.9 20.3 109.5 59.4 54.9 11.4 14.6 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.9 20.3 14.2 110.9 68.1 55.1 6.1 13.6 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.3 12.1 12.5 94.4 60.3 50.6 5.3 8.5 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.7 14.3 14.2 107.5 63.9 55.3 6.0 11.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.3 16.2 109.4 61.6 55.9 8.4 16.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.4 20.6 15.9 108.7 66.7 53.2 6.4 14.0 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.6 14.6 16.5 110.7 62.5 55.5 5.8 9.6 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.5 17.6 15.2 108.6 65.6 53.4 6.5 12.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.8 14.3 15.1 104.8 63.7 53.5 4.8 9.4 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.9 18.7 111.1 61.1 55.5 14.5 20.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.4 12.3 13.5 105.5 61.1 54.3 4.4 8.8 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------