***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 14.9 136.7 73.2 60.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 13.7 16.1 15.0 139.1 76.6 60.0 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 19.2 21.3 15.0 138.6 74.5 61.0 6.6 11.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 28.9 27.3 16.6 126.9 70.1 59.0 13.7 19.6 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 26.4 29.7 16.6 127.0 69.3 59.5 9.6 11.7 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.2 17.2 21.3 121.4 66.3 59.5 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.5 15.2 15.1 140.0 75.4 60.4 3.0 5.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 26.3 27.8 18.3 125.2 71.3 61.3 16.3 20.6 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 20.2 18.7 16.5 127.8 69.4 60.1 7.8 11.1 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 23.6 24.8 18.4 125.2 70.7 60.5 10.2 13.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 22.1 19.6 16.0 125.1 69.3 60.0 10.4 14.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 19.0 18.3 15.5 125.9 70.7 61.3 9.4 12.1 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.6 24.4 18.1 123.3 70.9 60.1 11.6 15.2 20.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 25.5 27.7 19.3 139.5 77.8 63.2 11.8 20.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.0 19.1 15.5 128.4 70.0 59.7 5.9 13.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.4 20.1 16.8 125.0 70.3 60.2 10.0 15.4 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 15.3 18.3 15.0 136.4 76.5 59.3 4.9 9.6 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 19.1 19.9 20.3 125.2 72.3 60.5 10.4 14.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 19.3 22.7 15.0 139.6 76.9 60.4 7.0 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 16.5 17.3 22.8 119.9 70.2 60.8 6.7 11.0 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 15.8 17.0 15.2 131.0 71.4 60.0 7.7 12.5 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 17.2 19.8 15.8 140.2 77.0 60.3 4.4 10.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 21.0 24.9 15.7 141.5 78.8 61.9 10.5 12.9 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 21.7 22.9 18.2 133.2 75.6 61.4 10.3 15.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 19.6 21.3 17.3 130.1 72.6 59.1 9.1 13.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.1 18.1 17.0 123.2 64.3 60.4 8.8 14.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 21.4 23.9 16.7 133.5 74.1 59.9 7.0 11.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.6 24.8 16.0 125.0 69.2 59.1 7.0 13.1 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 28.7 30.0 21.3 124.4 72.2 60.9 14.3 18.5 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.1 17.1 14.9 139.7 75.4 60.5 3.2 9.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------