***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 16.8 140.7 71.7 61.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.8 10.5 17.1 143.8 72.7 64.3 1.0 5.3 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.1 10.6 16.6 132.0 70.3 60.2 1.4 5.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 12.8 12.9 20.3 147.3 72.0 64.6 4.6 8.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 9.5 9.8 19.3 140.3 72.7 62.9 1.9 5.7 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.5 21.8 120.6 63.4 59.4 2.5 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.2 17.2 148.6 74.0 64.7 0.7 2.6 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.5 19.3 135.9 68.0 62.4 4.5 9.7 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.7 18.4 132.8 68.5 60.9 1.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.6 8.6 19.3 131.2 65.8 60.5 2.6 4.9 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.8 7.6 17.7 136.7 69.5 61.8 1.5 3.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.9 9.3 17.4 138.5 70.9 63.0 1.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 10.0 8.9 20.3 132.1 68.7 61.5 2.7 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.5 11.0 20.2 123.4 62.0 58.9 3.8 6.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 7.8 9.2 20.4 155.0 74.3 66.6 1.4 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.8 19.2 133.9 69.7 62.1 2.4 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 8.0 8.3 16.9 145.1 73.8 63.8 1.2 4.1 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.7 21.2 125.1 63.5 58.7 2.1 4.3 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 9.3 12.0 16.9 136.7 70.9 62.8 1.5 3.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.2 10.0 25.3 133.3 66.4 62.5 3.2 4.7 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.5 8.6 16.7 129.0 66.0 58.9 0.6 4.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 11.1 12.1 17.0 139.8 73.0 62.9 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.0 8.3 17.2 126.4 68.5 60.3 1.6 4.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.1 8.7 19.3 124.7 64.4 58.3 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.9 19.9 138.3 68.6 61.5 2.7 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 9.7 12.2 19.9 140.1 73.4 63.9 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.1 11.8 19.1 142.4 70.5 62.2 1.4 4.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 9.6 9.0 20.2 147.7 72.1 65.0 0.7 5.9 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 9.0 8.8 22.4 125.0 63.0 59.0 5.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 8.2 9.5 16.9 142.3 72.8 64.0 0.2 2.5 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------