***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 0.0 26.2 208.9 88.9 81.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 15.8 23.8 22.9 190.7 85.7 80.0 1.7 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 14.3 28.3 26.3 207.1 88.9 81.9 2.6 4.8 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 20.8 37.2 30.6 215.4 91.3 83.2 6.6 9.5 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 11.1 18.6 27.5 195.9 87.4 80.4 2.4 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 19.4 29.3 30.0 199.9 90.5 83.1 6.5 8.3 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 12.9 23.3 21.3 180.7 85.5 78.4 0.7 5.7 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 25.9 35.3 28.2 181.7 86.0 80.4 6.8 14.5 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 11.9 31.6 27.8 201.9 88.3 82.2 1.5 4.6 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 13.6 35.6 28.1 182.6 86.5 79.6 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 17.2 31.9 27.3 195.7 86.7 81.2 3.1 4.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 19.6 26.2 28.2 201.3 88.5 83.4 2.3 8.6 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 19.5 30.2 29.8 201.4 90.1 83.8 5.6 11.5 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 22.5 30.8 27.7 179.0 83.6 76.6 4.8 11.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 27.5 48.9 34.1 253.7 91.6 86.9 1.9 6.4 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 16.0 33.5 28.9 201.3 88.4 82.7 2.0 6.7 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 11.5 18.5 20.5 173.3 81.6 76.9 2.2 5.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 11.3 20.3 28.5 173.6 84.2 77.1 3.4 8.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 15.2 27.1 24.1 195.0 86.0 80.7 1.7 6.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 18.3 23.3 31.2 177.9 83.9 79.2 5.5 9.7 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 13.6 25.5 27.5 210.8 87.0 82.5 2.8 5.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 16.6 20.6 21.8 175.4 79.9 77.4 3.4 7.6 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 16.6 24.4 25.4 193.9 85.5 80.1 3.0 10.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.2 39.1 27.8 185.8 87.0 78.2 3.6 8.4 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 19.2 29.9 27.8 192.8 85.7 79.4 3.6 6.6 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 17.0 41.5 31.7 221.4 93.2 86.8 2.1 5.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 18.2 29.1 26.4 190.5 84.9 79.4 2.4 4.8 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 18.8 34.4 32.1 233.0 90.9 85.0 0.9 5.3 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 20.3 26.5 29.1 173.3 83.6 77.3 8.3 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 15.3 26.1 23.8 196.1 88.2 80.9 1.5 4.5 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------