***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.2 -3.3 4.2 11.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 14.5 12.9 11.9 -3.3 4.1 10.5 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 15.2 12.8 12.3 -3.3 3.8 10.9 16.0 17.0 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 7.2 4.8 10.3 -3.6 4.1 8.8 8.4 9.6 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 15.5 12.5 10.9 -3.4 3.9 11.0 16.3 17.2 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 14.3 13.1 9.8 -2.7 8.9 16.5 15.1 16.2 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 14.5 13.1 11.9 -3.2 4.5 11.2 15.6 16.5 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 3.0 1.9 9.9 -3.0 7.7 14.9 3.7 5.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 15.0 12.7 11.5 -3.4 4.0 11.4 15.8 16.8 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 15.0 13.2 10.5 -3.2 5.9 13.3 15.9 16.9 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 15.2 12.8 10.8 -3.2 4.6 12.2 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 14.4 12.5 10.7 -3.0 6.8 14.2 15.0 16.3 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 15.5 13.9 10.5 -2.7 7.3 16.0 16.0 17.4 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 14.7 13.2 11.2 -3.4 4.8 11.5 15.9 16.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 15.1 13.2 10.7 -3.7 4.1 7.1 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 15.6 13.4 10.6 -3.1 5.4 13.3 16.2 17.6 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 14.0 12.4 11.6 -3.4 4.2 10.3 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 14.5 13.4 9.9 -3.1 7.8 14.5 15.3 16.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 14.5 12.7 12.0 -3.4 4.0 10.4 15.5 16.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 9.4 8.9 8.1 -2.6 12.0 18.5 10.1 10.9 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 15.2 12.7 12.0 -3.4 3.8 10.6 15.9 16.9 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 14.5 13.2 11.7 -3.5 4.9 9.6 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 14.9 13.0 12.1 -3.4 4.0 10.8 15.7 16.8 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 14.6 13.0 11.2 -3.3 5.2 12.3 15.8 16.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 14.9 13.0 10.8 -3.4 4.2 10.0 15.9 16.8 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 14.9 13.8 10.4 -2.4 11.9 17.6 15.3 16.7 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 15.2 12.4 11.5 -3.2 4.2 11.3 15.8 16.9 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 94 6 0 100 15.0 13.0 10.6 -3.6 4.2 8.8 15.9 17.2 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 9.4 8.3 9.1 -3.0 9.4 16.0 10.2 11.2 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 14.7 12.5 12.1 -3.3 4.0 10.9 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------