***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.8 -0.9 42.6 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 15.6 16.8 15.6 -0.9 41.3 43.5 16.2 17.6 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 15.8 17.5 15.9 -0.9 42.1 44.3 16.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.5 14.5 -1.0 41.7 43.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.7 17.3 14.6 -0.9 43.2 44.5 16.5 17.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 14.6 15.1 12.9 -0.9 39.6 44.8 14.9 16.3 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 15.6 17.1 15.5 -0.9 42.8 43.8 15.6 17.4 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.3 4.5 13.2 -0.9 44.9 45.1 3.6 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 15.2 17.0 15.0 -0.9 43.3 44.8 16.2 17.5 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 15.4 17.4 13.9 -0.9 44.6 44.8 16.0 17.6 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 15.4 17.1 14.3 -0.9 42.7 44.9 16.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 14.5 16.2 14.0 -0.9 43.3 45.0 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 15.4 17.1 13.5 -0.9 40.7 44.6 16.7 17.6 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 15.7 17.5 14.7 -1.0 40.1 43.8 16.5 18.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 16.1 16.4 14.7 -1.0 42.2 43.3 16.0 17.2 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 15.7 17.4 14.0 -0.9 40.5 44.6 16.8 18.0 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 15.1 16.2 15.3 -1.0 42.5 43.2 15.8 16.9 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 15.2 17.0 13.2 -1.0 42.7 44.3 15.5 17.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 15.5 16.7 15.7 -0.9 40.7 43.6 15.7 17.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 9.2 11.3 11.0 -1.0 45.3 44.5 9.7 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 15.4 17.1 15.6 -0.9 43.3 44.5 16.7 17.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 15.4 16.8 15.4 -1.0 41.0 42.9 16.5 16.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 15.5 16.9 15.7 -1.0 39.5 43.9 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.8 14.7 -1.0 40.6 44.3 16.3 17.8 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.6 17.1 14.5 -1.0 42.8 44.0 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 15.1 16.3 13.3 -0.9 42.3 44.2 15.6 16.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 15.4 17.1 15.1 -0.9 41.9 44.1 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 15.9 16.7 14.7 -1.0 41.4 43.7 15.9 17.3 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.9 11.7 12.2 -1.0 43.3 44.3 10.4 12.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 15.5 16.9 15.7 -0.9 42.0 43.8 15.3 17.6 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------