***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.7 -1.7 29.2 35.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.5 14.5 14.5 -1.7 30.7 35.3 14.6 15.6 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 14.7 15.0 14.9 -1.7 30.7 35.6 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.3 13.1 -1.9 32.3 35.1 8.3 9.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.3 15.6 13.4 -1.9 31.1 35.4 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.7 14.5 11.6 -1.8 34.7 35.8 14.3 17.1 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 14.6 14.3 14.4 -1.7 29.5 35.0 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.2 3.1 12.0 -1.9 33.9 35.8 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 15.0 14.8 13.9 -1.9 31.0 35.5 15.2 16.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.1 12.8 -1.9 32.0 35.5 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 15.6 15.4 13.1 -1.8 31.9 35.6 15.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.2 15.5 12.8 -1.9 34.6 35.8 14.8 16.5 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.5 15.9 12.3 -1.8 35.2 35.8 15.6 18.0 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.6 14.5 13.8 -1.8 33.1 35.8 14.5 15.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.6 16.0 13.3 -1.9 31.1 35.0 16.1 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 15.8 15.9 12.8 -1.8 33.2 35.9 15.9 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 13.9 14.2 14.2 -1.6 31.7 35.1 14.3 15.0 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.6 12.2 -2.0 34.2 35.6 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.7 14.7 -1.7 32.3 35.4 14.8 15.5 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.8 9.9 -2.0 34.7 36.0 9.7 11.8 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.8 14.8 14.4 -1.8 30.0 35.5 15.3 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 14.4 15.1 14.4 -1.7 33.1 35.1 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 14.4 14.8 14.8 -1.7 34.3 35.4 14.8 15.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.3 14.6 13.7 -1.8 33.2 35.7 14.6 15.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 15.1 15.2 13.3 -1.8 29.0 35.0 15.4 16.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 17.3 15.4 12.0 -1.8 36.9 35.8 14.9 16.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 15.0 14.4 13.9 -1.8 28.9 34.8 14.8 16.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.1 13.3 -1.9 32.4 35.4 16.2 17.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.8 9.8 11.2 -2.0 34.2 35.8 9.7 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 14.4 14.7 14.7 -1.7 29.6 35.3 14.8 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------