***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.5 -1.4 30.9 39.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 15.8 16.3 13.2 -1.5 34.3 38.4 16.2 16.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 15.8 16.6 13.6 -1.5 33.0 39.5 16.6 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.8 7.7 11.6 -1.9 28.7 37.3 8.1 9.7 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 15.9 16.7 12.1 -1.6 32.2 39.4 16.8 17.2 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.5 10.6 -1.2 39.2 42.3 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 15.5 16.1 13.2 -1.4 35.8 38.2 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 3.5 11.0 -1.4 35.4 40.2 3.3 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 16.0 16.4 12.7 -1.5 33.8 40.4 16.4 17.1 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 16.1 16.3 11.7 -1.4 35.1 40.7 16.1 17.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 15.8 16.4 12.0 -1.5 35.3 40.6 16.3 16.9 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 15.1 15.5 11.7 -1.5 35.9 40.2 15.2 16.5 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.2 11.3 -1.3 36.1 41.1 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 16.1 16.4 12.7 -1.3 35.4 40.9 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.4 15.2 11.5 -2.1 27.5 35.4 15.4 16.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 16.4 16.6 11.6 -1.4 35.6 41.0 16.6 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 15.2 15.5 13.0 -1.5 34.7 37.1 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 15.8 16.2 11.3 -1.3 35.5 41.5 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 15.4 15.9 13.4 -1.5 33.4 38.7 15.9 16.7 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.7 8.9 -1.3 35.5 40.3 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 15.7 16.6 13.2 -1.5 31.0 39.7 16.6 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 15.7 15.7 13.1 -1.6 31.5 37.5 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 15.9 16.5 13.5 -1.4 33.8 39.5 16.5 17.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.8 16.6 12.6 -1.3 35.1 41.1 16.5 17.0 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 15.5 15.9 12.0 -1.6 30.4 38.3 16.1 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.8 15.3 10.9 -1.3 36.7 39.7 15.0 16.3 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 15.7 16.5 12.7 -1.5 32.1 39.3 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 15.7 15.2 11.8 -1.9 30.1 37.6 15.6 17.4 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.5 10.6 10.3 -1.2 36.4 41.4 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 15.6 16.0 13.4 -1.5 33.1 38.8 16.0 16.9 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------