***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.8 -9.0 0.0 2.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 12.3 5.6 4.3 -9.3 0.0 2.3 13.9 15.5 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 99 1 0 100 12.6 6.4 4.7 -9.3 0.6 2.8 14.1 15.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 4.0 0.5 2.0 -9.6 0.9 1.4 5.2 7.3 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 11.4 7.5 3.5 -9.1 1.8 3.1 14.4 15.7 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 10.5 8.6 3.9 -6.7 6.8 8.6 13.2 14.8 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 12.2 6.1 4.5 -9.0 0.0 2.2 13.8 15.3 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 -0.2 -2.2 3.4 -7.6 3.9 7.7 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 11.9 7.5 4.4 -9.2 1.9 3.6 13.9 15.6 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 11.8 8.3 3.5 -8.5 2.7 5.6 14.3 15.6 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 11.2 8.0 3.8 -8.8 2.5 4.4 14.1 15.8 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 10.2 8.1 4.2 -7.6 3.4 7.1 13.8 14.9 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 11.4 9.6 5.0 -6.8 5.4 8.5 14.9 16.0 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 12.4 8.3 3.7 -9.7 1.6 3.6 14.6 16.2 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 11.3 8.1 3.1 -10.0 0.0 0.8 13.8 14.9 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 11.2 9.0 4.1 -8.1 3.4 5.3 15.1 15.6 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 11.4 5.8 3.9 -9.3 0.0 2.1 13.3 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 11.3 9.0 3.0 -8.3 3.7 6.6 13.7 15.3 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 12.3 5.8 4.4 -9.4 0.0 2.4 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 5.6 4.3 2.5 -6.3 8.2 10.4 9.0 10.0 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 12.2 7.2 4.6 -9.4 1.4 2.8 14.2 15.6 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 12.3 6.3 3.9 -9.6 0.0 2.1 13.9 15.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 12.7 6.4 4.4 -9.5 0.1 2.8 14.5 15.8 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 11.9 8.3 3.9 -9.2 2.0 4.4 14.6 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 12.3 6.8 3.5 -9.2 0.0 1.7 14.0 15.4 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 11.5 9.8 5.3 -5.5 8.5 11.3 13.9 15.7 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 12.4 5.5 4.4 -8.8 0.0 2.1 14.5 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 11.4 8.8 2.7 -9.7 1.0 1.8 13.1 15.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 5.4 4.0 2.7 -7.7 4.6 7.6 9.0 10.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 12.3 5.5 4.6 -9.1 0.0 2.4 13.9 15.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------