***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.7 -1.9 8.1 20.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 3.7 2.7 3.2 -2.2 6.0 16.2 4.8 4.9 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 6.1 4.7 3.4 -1.9 7.6 18.6 6.7 7.6 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 0.1 -1.2 1.4 -2.1 6.1 14.5 0.9 1.8 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.9 1.9 1.7 -1.9 8.5 18.0 3.4 4.5 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 2.3 1.9 0.4 -1.3 16.5 26.1 2.8 3.6 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 4.0 3.2 3.2 -2.2 6.1 17.1 4.7 5.6 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -3.2 -3.2 0.6 -1.3 18.3 26.7 -2.3 -1.9 -1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 3.9 3.4 2.3 -1.8 10.1 20.1 4.3 5.5 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 4.1 3.7 1.0 -1.6 13.7 23.2 4.5 5.3 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 3.8 3.3 1.4 -1.7 11.3 20.5 4.2 5.2 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 2.3 1.9 1.3 -1.4 16.9 24.9 3.4 3.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 3.4 3.1 1.0 -1.3 17.8 26.2 4.0 4.6 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 4.4 3.8 2.0 -2.1 4.6 16.1 4.9 5.6 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 4.6 3.7 2.0 -2.1 7.7 14.3 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 4.3 3.8 1.2 -1.6 12.9 21.7 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 4.3 3.4 2.9 -2.4 5.0 14.6 4.7 5.7 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 2.0 1.5 0.4 -1.6 13.6 24.5 2.5 3.0 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 3.8 2.9 3.2 -2.2 6.2 16.3 4.4 5.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -0.4 -0.2 -0.9 -1.1 26.9 32.9 0.1 0.6 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 3.7 3.0 3.1 -1.9 8.6 19.2 4.4 5.4 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 3.5 2.7 2.9 -2.4 3.9 13.5 4.1 4.9 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 3.3 2.5 3.1 -2.1 6.5 16.7 4.1 5.0 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 3.8 2.9 1.9 -1.9 7.2 19.2 4.2 5.2 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 3.7 3.1 2.3 -2.0 7.6 17.8 4.4 5.4 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 3.5 3.5 1.3 -1.0 21.0 30.1 3.9 4.3 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 4.2 2.6 3.1 -1.9 8.3 19.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 2.3 1.8 1.7 -2.0 8.0 14.8 3.1 3.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 1.1 0.8 -0.1 -1.5 18.7 26.8 1.6 2.1 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 4.1 3.2 3.4 -2.1 6.5 17.5 5.0 5.8 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------