***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.4 -1.0 31.7 37.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.8 4.7 5.1 -1.1 29.5 36.9 5.0 5.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 5.9 6.4 5.2 -0.9 34.2 39.2 6.3 7.5 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -0.2 0.7 3.3 -0.9 36.9 38.1 0.3 1.6 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.4 4.0 3.3 -0.8 36.3 39.6 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.7 3.2 1.5 -0.9 37.3 39.0 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 4.1 5.0 5.0 -1.1 29.7 36.6 5.1 6.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -2.2 1.8 -0.7 41.1 41.2 -2.5 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.0 4.6 3.8 -0.8 37.5 39.9 4.4 5.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.3 4.6 2.5 -0.8 40.3 40.8 4.4 5.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.1 4.4 2.9 -0.7 38.4 40.6 4.1 5.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.0 3.7 2.6 -0.7 39.7 41.0 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.4 4.3 2.1 -0.8 37.7 40.1 4.2 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.3 3.9 -0.9 35.1 39.1 5.2 5.8 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 5.0 5.0 3.7 -1.0 35.5 37.0 4.7 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.6 5.2 2.5 -0.8 37.8 40.0 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 4.1 4.7 4.8 -1.2 28.6 35.3 4.9 5.8 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.4 2.9 1.9 -0.8 40.4 41.4 2.7 3.0 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 3.7 4.5 5.1 -1.0 30.1 37.5 4.7 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 1.4 0.7 0.2 -0.7 42.3 42.6 0.1 1.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.0 4.3 4.7 -0.9 34.1 39.5 4.3 5.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.6 4.3 4.9 -1.1 28.3 35.9 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.7 4.1 4.9 -0.9 31.4 38.0 4.2 5.1 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.1 4.7 3.6 -0.8 36.9 40.2 4.5 5.1 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.3 4.7 4.0 -1.0 34.1 38.1 4.5 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.4 2.3 -0.7 38.3 39.5 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.3 4.1 4.7 -1.1 32.1 37.4 4.1 6.0 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.9 2.8 3.4 -1.0 36.3 37.8 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.7 1.7 1.3 -0.7 40.3 41.9 1.3 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 4.3 4.8 5.2 -1.0 30.6 37.6 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------