***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 -0.7 36.9 45.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.1 4.8 4.0 -0.9 33.7 44.3 4.8 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.5 6.7 4.0 -0.9 33.1 44.5 6.7 7.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 0.0 0.4 1.5 -1.3 26.6 38.6 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.1 2.2 1.8 -1.1 30.7 41.4 2.9 4.7 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.3 0.8 0.2 -1.0 28.6 42.1 1.7 3.2 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.4 4.8 4.0 -0.8 34.0 44.8 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -2.9 -2.7 0.8 -0.8 33.8 46.7 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.2 2.5 -1.0 33.4 43.6 4.1 5.8 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.4 4.1 1.3 -0.9 32.1 45.3 4.4 5.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.3 3.2 1.5 -1.1 30.0 42.6 3.9 5.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.7 2.4 1.4 -0.9 32.4 45.4 2.5 3.5 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.5 2.4 0.8 -1.0 29.0 44.3 2.7 4.5 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.5 4.4 2.5 -1.2 32.0 42.3 4.5 5.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.9 3.9 1.9 -1.4 26.4 37.8 4.4 5.5 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.7 3.9 1.1 -1.1 28.2 41.8 4.0 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.1 3.8 -1.0 32.9 42.9 5.1 5.6 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 1.6 1.7 0.8 -0.9 32.1 46.5 1.7 3.0 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.5 3.9 -0.9 33.3 43.8 4.4 5.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -1.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 39.6 50.4 -0.3 0.3 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.0 3.5 -0.9 34.8 44.2 3.9 5.3 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.2 3.8 -1.0 32.9 41.6 4.2 5.1 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.3 3.7 -1.0 32.6 42.7 4.3 5.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.7 4.3 2.3 -1.0 32.4 44.0 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.5 4.0 2.6 -1.1 31.4 42.3 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.9 2.8 1.2 -0.7 34.9 45.6 2.7 4.5 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.3 4.5 3.6 -0.8 34.7 44.7 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.3 1.7 1.6 -1.4 26.4 38.1 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 1.2 1.6 0.3 -0.8 34.5 47.2 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.6 4.6 4.1 -0.8 34.7 44.9 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------