***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.2 -5.0 7.5 8.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 0.8 -0.3 -2.5 -6.2 3.6 5.9 3.4 3.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 2.6 1.8 -1.6 -5.3 6.1 7.9 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -2.7 -4.7 -3.8 -5.4 3.9 5.0 -1.2 0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 0.1 -0.5 -2.8 -4.8 6.0 8.0 1.1 3.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 0.2 -0.3 -2.9 -2.6 15.3 21.4 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 1.4 0.6 -2.4 -6.0 3.7 6.6 3.5 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 -5.9 -6.3 -3.2 -3.2 16.2 20.6 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 1.4 0.4 -2.0 -4.5 7.1 9.6 2.9 4.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 1.6 0.9 -3.1 -4.0 12.2 14.5 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 1.3 0.7 -2.7 -4.2 8.4 11.0 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 -0.1 -1.0 -2.5 -3.3 13.0 18.2 0.8 2.6 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 0.9 0.4 -2.1 -2.9 13.0 20.1 1.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 1.7 0.4 -3.2 -5.8 4.7 6.9 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 2.4 2.2 -2.3 -5.1 5.4 5.8 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 2.1 0.7 -2.6 -3.8 9.0 13.0 2.9 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 1.8 0.3 -3.2 -6.7 2.6 4.8 3.5 4.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 90 10 0 100 -0.5 -0.9 -4.0 -4.1 12.1 15.3 0.1 1.7 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 1.2 -0.3 -2.3 -6.0 3.8 6.1 3.5 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 -3.0 -3.2 -4.5 -2.4 19.2 27.7 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 97 3 0 100 1.2 0.2 -1.5 -5.0 6.3 8.2 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 0.9 -2.4 -3.1 -6.8 1.3 4.3 3.1 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 0.9 -0.3 -2.1 -5.6 4.6 6.8 2.3 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 0.9 0.1 -2.9 -5.1 7.2 9.1 2.8 3.7 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 1.1 -0.1 -2.3 -5.3 5.9 6.9 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 1.2 0.9 -1.5 -1.9 22.9 29.5 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 1.2 0.4 -1.7 -5.0 7.6 8.3 2.9 5.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 0.5 -0.3 -3.0 -5.2 5.1 6.1 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 -2.2 -2.7 -4.4 -3.6 14.3 18.4 0.0 0.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 1.4 0.4 -2.0 -5.7 4.3 6.9 3.8 4.8 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------