***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 48.1 98.1 51.7 49.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 23.7 35.9 45.4 91.3 47.7 44.4 25.7 36.9 44.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 38.3 48.1 49.1 98.6 52.0 49.5 39.3 47.2 55.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 67.1 72.7 63.9 112.4 60.4 57.6 56.4 64.7 73.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 55.9 58.4 60.9 109.2 60.4 56.0 45.4 52.4 61.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 62.1 64.0 77.8 114.9 68.9 61.0 38.8 45.5 61.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 20.3 29.2 45.3 91.2 45.5 44.6 20.0 30.5 49.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 93.7 95.0 70.7 115.6 67.7 61.5 65.5 76.4 94.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 53.2 52.2 57.9 105.4 58.7 54.3 38.8 49.0 53.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 66.3 74.2 68.8 111.8 65.4 59.0 45.4 62.2 74.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 57.5 63.1 60.3 112.5 64.8 58.4 39.9 52.8 63.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 52.1 57.1 61.4 115.4 66.6 60.0 33.9 48.8 56.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 68.8 67.3 69.0 115.1 69.2 60.6 47.1 53.3 63.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 46.1 64.2 62.5 101.1 53.1 49.6 52.6 63.6 72.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 50.9 54.4 62.8 117.3 66.1 59.9 39.8 46.5 54.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 54.3 61.5 64.3 113.9 65.9 59.5 41.7 49.6 61.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 22.2 29.3 42.3 87.0 44.2 41.9 25.0 35.2 47.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 49.2 50.9 75.0 110.1 66.2 58.6 38.1 44.0 50.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 28.2 35.6 46.3 92.9 49.2 45.2 26.8 36.3 52.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 62.9 68.4 86.2 114.0 68.9 62.3 36.9 47.8 65.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 49.1 46.7 51.5 103.3 55.4 52.7 37.6 42.6 54.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 29.7 40.1 43.7 88.8 46.1 42.6 31.7 42.3 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 32.9 46.3 48.8 95.3 49.7 46.4 37.3 46.4 57.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 40.1 57.9 62.8 103.4 58.6 52.9 45.1 54.4 64.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 52.7 55.2 60.5 103.9 57.2 52.7 45.4 50.9 57.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 57.3 59.8 68.3 118.8 72.6 63.1 36.7 47.5 58.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 34.3 50.0 55.8 99.6 54.3 50.0 40.6 46.2 61.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 53.4 56.6 63.6 114.8 64.3 58.9 41.3 50.5 57.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 74.2 78.7 78.5 110.8 67.0 59.0 52.7 66.7 78.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 24.7 33.9 46.7 93.9 49.9 46.2 25.2 33.9 52.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------