***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 77.5 54.8 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.7 8.5 11.1 87.8 54.3 44.6 6.1 7.4 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 7.8 15.5 10.0 86.8 57.0 45.2 10.7 13.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.2 17.4 11.4 89.6 57.2 47.7 11.3 15.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.0 16.7 10.9 88.6 58.8 47.7 5.7 15.1 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.2 14.9 95.7 57.8 49.8 8.0 11.8 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.2 10.6 83.7 52.4 43.4 5.1 9.1 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.4 13.2 98.1 58.7 49.2 17.2 23.3 26.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.8 16.4 10.3 84.7 57.3 46.7 6.8 13.6 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.5 18.1 12.7 91.3 57.8 48.0 8.7 15.4 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.5 14.1 10.5 89.8 57.7 47.6 7.2 12.3 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 9.1 16.0 10.9 95.9 60.4 48.4 8.6 12.7 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 19.1 18.4 12.3 89.7 57.1 47.4 6.8 15.7 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.4 17.4 13.1 90.8 53.8 44.8 11.1 15.7 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.1 10.8 91.5 57.5 47.9 5.1 12.1 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.0 11.2 89.9 57.4 47.9 6.9 13.9 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.5 8.7 10.5 82.3 53.3 42.8 4.1 8.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.0 15.3 14.7 93.9 57.7 48.4 6.6 13.4 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.9 11.0 88.7 55.6 44.6 5.4 9.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.0 17.0 97.9 57.3 50.5 6.5 11.4 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 8.5 18.1 9.2 83.5 57.1 45.9 7.6 13.6 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.2 12.2 10.7 86.2 56.2 43.6 7.2 9.8 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 5.8 12.6 10.7 87.2 54.3 43.3 5.7 11.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.0 13.9 12.6 90.7 55.3 45.9 8.9 12.8 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 8.1 16.6 10.6 76.1 51.1 42.9 5.4 15.3 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.4 10.4 11.1 92.1 53.3 47.9 3.7 8.9 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 6.7 12.8 10.2 75.6 51.0 42.6 4.0 12.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.5 11.2 92.3 58.1 48.7 4.0 9.4 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.3 21.8 15.5 94.3 58.0 48.7 11.2 18.3 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.1 12.5 10.8 87.3 55.8 44.9 4.5 10.8 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------