***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.9 75.3 48.6 41.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.6 9.4 11.2 73.9 50.1 40.7 4.3 9.4 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.8 11.8 84.1 55.8 44.9 6.1 9.3 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 10.4 18.4 13.8 86.3 52.4 43.2 13.0 17.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.7 12.2 13.2 85.1 51.1 42.8 7.5 12.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.1 14.6 18.2 96.4 55.1 45.0 4.0 10.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.0 10.7 70.5 46.8 39.4 2.6 5.1 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.4 22.2 15.7 91.6 52.3 47.0 17.4 21.7 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 6.7 12.8 13.0 86.7 52.2 43.4 6.1 11.9 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.5 16.0 15.4 90.6 51.6 45.3 12.3 15.6 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.7 12.5 13.0 87.7 51.9 44.3 7.2 12.3 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.2 11.5 13.5 93.5 57.2 47.2 5.0 9.6 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.2 14.7 15.6 96.9 56.4 46.2 7.8 12.7 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.6 21.5 15.5 90.7 54.7 45.6 10.1 19.4 26.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.0 13.2 13.8 92.7 58.6 44.0 3.7 8.8 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 6.6 13.1 14.2 92.2 55.5 44.7 9.0 12.4 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.5 7.6 10.8 71.4 46.4 38.5 3.2 8.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.8 15.7 17.7 94.1 53.2 47.8 9.6 14.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.0 13.0 11.5 78.3 52.9 42.1 6.4 12.4 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.9 9.3 20.4 93.0 51.4 48.2 6.1 9.3 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.0 9.4 11.3 83.0 52.7 43.7 6.3 8.9 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.0 10.3 11.3 73.6 47.1 39.0 5.1 12.0 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.3 16.7 12.1 83.5 55.2 43.5 8.0 14.2 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 8.4 15.3 15.3 92.5 55.8 46.6 9.4 13.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.8 10.5 13.7 83.6 50.3 43.6 5.7 10.5 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.3 14.0 15.1 97.4 54.3 48.9 6.4 11.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.4 9.8 12.9 79.3 47.8 42.2 6.0 10.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.4 12.0 14.1 91.1 55.7 43.5 5.0 8.3 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.8 18.3 18.8 95.6 53.9 49.1 13.7 18.2 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.3 9.5 11.3 76.0 50.9 41.9 2.7 9.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------