***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.4 65.5 46.6 39.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.4 7.0 66.9 44.8 39.7 0.4 3.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.0 7.7 64.6 45.7 38.5 0.4 2.9 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.5 11.7 80.4 57.4 46.7 3.1 8.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.0 11.5 79.9 53.6 46.0 1.0 5.4 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.1 17.3 93.0 58.2 50.4 3.2 5.8 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.0 1.2 7.0 68.0 44.4 39.9 0.3 2.6 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.1 15.6 99.4 59.8 52.0 4.5 11.6 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.5 11.4 81.1 52.7 46.0 0.8 3.2 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.4 4.9 14.7 94.0 57.1 49.7 1.5 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.7 3.7 12.1 86.4 54.8 48.5 1.2 3.2 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.1 12.7 90.2 57.2 50.4 0.9 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.0 14.3 88.3 55.1 49.5 3.9 6.9 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.7 11.3 76.0 45.8 42.3 1.8 3.9 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.1 11.6 82.1 59.8 46.3 2.8 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.6 13.2 87.4 56.7 49.2 2.1 5.1 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.5 2.9 7.1 72.5 48.8 42.5 0.7 3.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.5 16.5 97.2 59.1 50.8 1.5 3.0 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.2 7.2 65.5 45.3 38.6 0.4 2.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.3 9.6 21.4 114.2 63.9 56.8 2.9 5.4 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.5 2.3 9.2 73.5 50.2 43.7 0.4 2.3 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.1 7.4 74.0 47.0 42.1 1.1 3.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.3 7.8 65.8 48.4 38.8 0.8 2.7 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.8 12.0 80.1 50.5 44.5 1.6 6.3 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.0 10.3 72.9 51.3 41.8 1.6 5.1 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.0 13.5 84.3 53.5 47.6 0.4 6.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.5 2.6 9.0 69.1 48.1 40.2 1.1 3.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.1 12.4 85.4 60.0 47.8 1.3 4.4 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 8.7 18.0 102.4 59.3 52.8 4.1 7.4 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 0.6 0.6 7.0 64.5 44.2 38.6 0.3 1.5 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------