***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 21.0 175.8 81.7 71.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.4 12.1 16.1 140.7 72.8 64.0 2.9 4.9 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 11.1 14.1 19.6 159.1 77.8 69.6 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 20.1 29.1 26.9 199.9 88.9 78.5 6.5 9.5 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 10.9 24.2 25.2 187.8 88.5 76.3 2.2 6.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 18.0 25.7 27.5 186.4 86.9 78.8 5.6 7.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 10.5 9.4 16.9 148.3 72.6 65.1 1.8 4.3 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 24.5 34.2 26.1 176.0 86.6 76.5 8.4 13.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 12.2 27.1 23.2 169.0 86.6 72.1 1.2 5.8 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 16.9 34.1 26.0 173.1 87.1 74.7 2.2 7.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 16.7 35.8 24.7 188.6 88.1 77.2 3.0 4.8 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 18.3 25.8 24.3 182.7 86.5 76.6 2.7 10.0 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 19.9 24.0 26.7 192.5 86.7 78.7 5.3 12.9 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 22.1 28.2 22.5 146.9 78.5 67.1 6.1 12.1 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 19.4 30.5 26.6 210.2 88.2 78.9 2.0 6.7 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 16.2 22.7 25.7 190.5 87.4 78.3 2.0 6.9 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.7 9.3 13.9 127.1 68.0 60.3 2.8 4.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 11.7 19.9 26.1 156.7 84.1 71.2 3.4 9.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 11.8 12.5 16.6 141.4 73.8 64.7 1.9 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 16.7 23.4 27.3 156.2 85.1 74.0 5.6 7.6 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 14.7 20.1 21.9 169.9 83.2 71.3 2.8 6.4 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.5 13.8 14.3 125.6 69.9 60.6 3.7 7.5 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 13.7 15.9 18.2 145.3 76.2 66.2 4.4 8.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 12.9 16.4 22.8 149.2 79.3 67.8 4.4 9.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 17.6 27.9 25.9 187.7 85.1 74.7 4.2 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 15.8 22.4 28.7 204.9 89.1 81.5 3.6 6.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.6 25.0 23.7 179.0 84.2 72.3 2.3 4.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 17.0 23.5 25.9 195.0 87.3 78.2 3.1 7.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 20.4 26.8 26.1 152.7 81.7 70.8 8.2 12.0 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.7 17.6 151.6 76.3 67.1 2.8 4.4 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------