***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 16.0 0.9 69.2 64.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 17.4 17.3 16.0 1.0 69.6 66.7 15.5 16.8 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 17.5 17.3 16.0 0.7 62.2 61.9 15.9 17.0 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.2 13.9 0.4 59.2 56.7 8.2 9.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.5 17.5 14.3 0.4 56.6 56.8 16.3 17.3 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.4 12.3 0.3 56.4 55.8 15.2 16.0 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.0 16.0 1.1 70.9 68.1 15.3 16.4 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.1 12.6 0.3 54.9 55.0 3.5 4.7 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 17.0 17.1 14.9 0.4 57.2 57.1 15.8 16.8 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.1 13.5 0.3 54.6 55.4 15.8 16.9 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.3 13.9 0.4 56.8 56.4 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.6 13.4 0.3 56.7 55.9 15.0 16.4 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.5 17.6 13.1 0.4 58.0 56.7 16.0 17.3 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.9 14.5 0.2 54.9 54.6 15.9 16.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 17.0 17.2 14.4 0.4 61.1 57.0 15.5 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 17.7 17.8 13.6 0.4 57.4 56.5 16.4 17.5 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.4 15.7 1.0 68.7 67.0 15.0 15.7 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.6 12.8 0.2 53.6 54.4 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.2 16.0 0.9 66.5 64.8 15.3 16.6 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.2 10.4 0.2 55.2 55.1 9.9 11.1 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 17.1 17.3 15.5 0.5 58.1 58.7 15.9 17.0 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 16.7 17.2 15.6 0.8 63.1 63.0 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.4 15.9 0.7 62.0 61.4 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.8 17.0 14.5 0.3 55.3 55.7 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.2 14.5 0.6 62.1 60.8 15.8 16.9 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 16.6 16.7 12.6 0.4 56.5 57.2 15.4 16.4 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 17.3 17.3 15.3 0.8 67.5 64.2 15.7 16.8 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 17.1 17.5 14.1 0.4 57.5 55.5 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.4 11.8 0.2 54.0 54.6 10.0 11.3 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 17.2 17.1 16.1 1.0 69.6 66.4 15.2 16.5 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------