***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 17.7 0.3 55.0 53.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 15.3 17.6 17.7 0.5 59.2 55.9 15.0 16.7 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 15.2 17.8 17.8 0.3 55.4 53.9 15.9 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.1 9.5 15.8 -0.2 49.5 48.9 8.7 9.5 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.6 17.0 16.1 -0.1 48.8 49.6 16.5 17.1 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 14.3 15.3 14.1 -0.5 47.8 46.5 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.4 17.6 0.5 58.8 55.7 14.7 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.4 14.6 -0.2 49.5 48.9 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.7 16.6 0.0 50.6 50.6 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 15.0 16.8 15.4 -0.1 49.1 49.3 15.9 16.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.7 15.7 -0.1 49.3 49.2 16.0 16.8 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.9 15.4 -0.2 51.0 48.9 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.6 14.8 -0.3 50.5 47.8 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.1 17.2 16.4 0.1 53.1 51.8 16.1 17.1 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 15.7 17.1 16.0 -0.1 50.5 48.9 15.8 17.1 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 15.7 16.8 15.3 -0.3 49.3 48.1 16.5 16.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.9 17.4 0.5 59.2 55.9 14.3 16.3 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 14.3 16.5 14.8 -0.2 50.2 49.6 15.5 16.5 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 15.0 17.4 17.8 0.4 58.4 55.5 15.1 16.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.4 12.4 -0.2 50.7 49.2 9.5 10.4 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.8 17.3 0.1 50.8 51.6 15.8 16.8 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 15.4 17.1 17.4 0.4 58.0 54.8 15.2 16.9 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.4 17.6 17.7 0.3 56.4 54.7 15.7 17.1 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.8 16.9 16.4 0.0 53.3 51.5 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.7 16.2 0.0 49.3 51.0 15.7 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.9 14.5 -0.3 51.7 48.6 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.9 16.7 16.9 0.2 52.5 52.5 15.4 16.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 15.6 17.1 15.9 -0.2 49.8 48.1 15.8 17.1 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.1 10.8 13.7 -0.2 49.8 49.5 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.2 17.4 17.8 0.5 57.4 55.5 15.0 16.7 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------