***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 16.0 1.7 68.6 67.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 18.5 18.7 16.1 1.8 73.3 69.0 16.2 16.8 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.8 18.0 16.1 1.5 66.6 65.3 16.4 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 9.7 9.5 13.8 1.0 58.4 60.4 7.9 9.3 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 17.5 17.4 14.2 1.2 61.5 60.7 16.4 16.8 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.9 12.3 1.2 61.6 61.0 14.5 15.1 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 18.1 18.3 16.1 2.0 75.2 70.2 16.0 16.6 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 5.9 5.8 12.8 1.2 62.4 60.7 3.3 4.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.0 14.8 1.3 60.7 61.5 16.1 16.7 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 18.6 17.6 13.6 1.3 60.1 60.8 15.9 16.9 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 18.8 17.0 13.8 1.2 60.7 60.9 16.1 16.5 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 17.9 17.1 13.5 1.3 62.2 61.3 14.7 15.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.8 13.1 1.4 63.5 62.6 15.6 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 18.5 17.6 14.8 1.3 61.1 61.8 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 16.8 16.8 13.9 0.9 58.7 59.6 15.1 16.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 17.6 17.7 13.5 1.3 61.0 61.2 16.3 17.0 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.3 17.8 15.9 1.9 74.5 69.6 15.5 15.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 18.3 17.2 13.1 1.3 61.0 60.9 15.6 16.5 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 18.1 18.2 16.2 1.7 71.0 67.6 16.1 16.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 12.8 12.1 10.8 1.3 63.7 61.5 10.0 11.5 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 17.3 17.9 15.4 1.4 63.2 62.8 16.5 16.8 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 18.1 18.3 15.9 1.6 70.9 67.0 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 18.5 17.8 16.1 1.5 67.0 65.3 16.7 17.2 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.3 14.7 1.3 61.6 61.9 16.0 17.1 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 18.4 17.9 14.4 1.4 64.0 64.2 15.8 16.9 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 17.7 17.7 12.7 1.4 66.3 63.0 14.7 15.5 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 18.4 18.0 15.3 1.7 69.7 66.9 16.4 16.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 16.8 17.1 13.8 0.9 58.3 59.2 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.6 12.2 1.3 62.3 61.3 10.0 11.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 18.3 18.4 16.2 1.8 72.1 68.6 16.2 16.7 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------