***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 13.8 0.8 58.7 57.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.9 13.7 0.8 59.2 56.6 14.2 15.0 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.4 13.6 0.4 55.0 51.9 14.5 16.1 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.0 11.4 0.7 56.3 54.8 5.3 7.1 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.4 12.0 0.3 53.4 51.3 14.5 15.9 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 15.0 16.7 10.1 0.8 56.5 55.6 12.5 14.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.2 16.1 13.7 1.0 60.9 59.2 14.0 14.7 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 3.9 3.2 9.8 0.0 47.8 47.9 1.8 3.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 12.8 0.2 52.2 49.8 14.1 15.6 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.8 15.9 10.9 0.0 47.3 47.6 13.8 16.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.4 11.7 0.3 51.9 50.3 14.0 16.2 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 15.5 14.9 10.7 0.2 49.9 49.8 13.3 14.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.0 11.0 0.4 51.6 52.9 14.4 15.7 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.8 14.3 11.7 -0.7 34.7 40.8 14.2 16.3 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.9 13.1 1.0 60.9 58.8 13.5 14.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.0 11.5 0.5 53.1 53.0 14.3 16.1 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.6 13.3 0.8 58.5 56.5 13.2 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.4 15.0 9.8 -0.4 42.2 44.3 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.1 13.6 0.5 56.4 53.8 14.0 15.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 10.0 8.8 7.5 -0.2 44.3 46.9 8.3 9.4 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.7 13.3 0.2 52.6 50.6 14.3 15.6 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.2 13.0 0.3 52.0 51.3 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.7 13.2 0.1 49.3 49.3 14.4 15.7 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.8 15.7 11.7 -0.4 41.6 43.8 14.4 16.3 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.6 12.5 0.7 56.8 55.7 13.7 15.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 15.2 15.9 10.1 0.5 54.0 53.9 13.5 14.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.6 13.3 0.9 60.0 57.7 14.6 15.7 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.9 12.1 0.7 56.6 55.3 13.3 15.7 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.2 9.6 8.9 -0.3 42.8 44.9 8.1 10.6 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.8 13.8 0.8 59.5 56.8 14.4 15.0 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------