***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 0.0 6.6 1.4 85.6 78.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 6.0 6.6 6.4 1.4 86.4 78.4 4.7 5.0 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 8.1 8.8 6.3 1.4 85.9 78.4 6.9 7.4 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 2.4 2.7 3.9 1.1 76.9 74.1 1.0 1.6 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 5.4 5.6 4.0 1.1 77.9 74.8 3.0 4.4 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 4.0 4.2 2.1 1.1 77.8 74.0 2.6 3.5 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 6.3 6.7 6.4 1.4 86.4 78.7 4.7 5.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -1.2 -0.9 2.3 1.1 79.3 73.7 -2.4 -1.9 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 6.0 6.2 4.5 1.1 81.3 75.7 4.2 5.4 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 5.9 6.1 3.0 1.1 79.2 74.1 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 5.8 6.1 3.5 1.1 78.7 74.4 4.0 5.0 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 4.4 4.6 3.0 1.0 78.8 72.5 3.2 3.7 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.4 2.5 0.8 75.9 69.7 3.8 4.5 5.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 6.2 6.7 4.5 1.1 83.1 75.0 4.7 5.6 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 6.2 6.4 4.6 1.1 75.6 74.0 4.7 5.4 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 6.4 6.7 3.1 0.9 77.5 72.0 4.8 5.4 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 6.1 6.5 6.1 1.3 83.6 76.1 4.8 5.5 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 3.7 4.0 2.3 1.1 79.1 73.9 2.3 2.9 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 6.0 6.6 6.3 1.4 86.4 78.7 4.4 5.2 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 1.2 1.4 0.6 1.2 79.6 74.4 -0.3 0.5 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 6.1 6.5 5.6 1.2 83.6 76.1 4.2 5.4 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 5.5 5.8 6.0 1.2 82.8 75.8 4.1 4.8 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 5.6 5.9 6.0 1.3 86.7 78.9 3.9 4.9 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 5.9 6.1 4.3 1.1 83.1 76.0 4.1 5.2 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 6.4 6.7 4.9 1.2 82.0 76.3 4.4 5.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 4.8 4.7 2.5 0.6 65.6 65.3 3.7 4.3 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 6.7 7.0 5.8 1.3 84.2 77.2 5.1 6.0 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 4.6 4.7 4.1 1.0 75.7 72.9 2.9 3.9 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.2 80.7 74.9 1.6 2.0 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 6.6 7.1 6.6 1.4 86.5 79.0 4.9 5.7 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------