***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.5 0.1 56.7 51.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.8 7.5 0.3 61.5 54.8 4.1 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.3 8.3 7.2 0.2 55.4 52.8 6.4 8.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 0.4 1.9 4.9 -0.1 50.4 49.1 1.4 1.9 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.9 4.8 -0.1 49.5 49.0 3.8 5.0 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.2 3.0 -0.2 47.0 49.7 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.8 7.5 0.3 60.8 54.6 4.7 6.0 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -1.9 3.1 -0.3 47.0 48.2 -2.3 -1.7 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.6 6.0 5.3 -0.2 48.6 48.5 4.6 6.1 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.1 3.8 -0.2 48.2 48.3 4.4 6.2 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.4 6.0 4.4 -0.1 50.3 49.7 4.4 6.0 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.4 4.0 -0.2 46.1 48.3 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.1 3.5 -0.2 47.9 49.0 4.5 5.2 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.0 5.5 0.1 50.6 51.5 5.1 5.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.5 5.3 -0.2 49.7 47.9 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.5 6.2 4.1 -0.1 48.6 49.8 5.5 6.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.7 7.3 0.3 59.8 54.4 5.0 6.4 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.2 -0.2 50.3 48.8 2.7 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.8 6.7 7.4 0.3 60.9 55.1 4.3 6.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.2 1.0 1.5 -0.2 49.4 49.1 0.2 1.0 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.3 6.4 -0.1 52.3 49.7 4.4 6.1 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.9 7.2 0.3 58.9 55.0 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.5 7.0 0.3 57.8 55.5 4.0 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.5 5.2 0.0 52.7 51.2 4.3 5.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.6 6.6 5.7 0.0 52.6 49.8 4.2 6.2 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.8 3.7 -0.2 47.5 48.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.7 6.8 6.7 0.0 53.9 50.6 4.8 6.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.5 5.3 5.0 -0.1 50.0 49.1 4.0 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.1 2.5 2.7 -0.1 50.5 49.4 1.2 2.4 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.9 6.8 7.6 0.3 59.4 54.1 4.8 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------