***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 6.8 0.9 61.3 61.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.6 6.7 1.0 64.3 64.2 4.9 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 9.2 8.4 6.5 0.9 63.1 63.1 6.2 7.7 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.2 1.9 4.0 0.4 56.9 56.9 0.3 1.6 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.9 4.1 0.5 56.6 57.7 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.2 2.2 0.4 56.7 56.9 2.8 4.1 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.0 6.7 1.0 64.1 63.7 4.9 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.3 -1.1 2.5 0.4 56.0 58.0 -2.7 -1.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.7 4.6 0.6 57.2 58.5 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.3 3.1 0.5 55.6 57.8 4.4 5.6 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.6 3.6 0.4 55.2 56.9 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.5 3.3 0.4 55.8 57.2 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.3 2.6 0.2 54.7 54.6 4.0 4.9 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.7 4.8 0.7 60.0 61.4 5.1 5.8 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.0 4.5 0.3 55.8 55.4 5.1 5.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.3 3.2 0.3 54.6 55.3 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 7.1 7.2 6.4 0.9 62.5 62.1 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.7 2.6 0.5 55.2 58.5 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.8 6.6 1.0 63.8 64.3 4.7 5.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.5 55.2 58.1 0.0 0.9 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.4 5.8 0.7 57.8 59.7 4.3 5.4 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 6.4 5.9 6.3 0.8 59.4 61.8 4.3 5.6 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.5 6.3 6.3 1.0 62.9 63.9 4.0 5.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.8 4.6 0.7 58.8 61.1 4.2 5.6 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.2 4.9 0.6 56.3 58.7 4.5 6.1 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.0 2.8 0.1 52.0 52.4 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.2 5.9 0.7 57.4 59.7 4.9 5.7 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.7 4.1 0.3 56.3 55.7 2.9 4.4 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.8 2.8 2.0 0.6 57.0 59.7 1.1 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.2 6.8 1.0 65.3 64.2 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------