***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 6.1 1.7 76.3 70.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.5 6.0 1.7 75.2 70.6 4.6 5.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 8.7 9.3 5.9 1.7 78.9 71.8 6.4 7.6 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 2.9 2.9 3.3 1.3 69.1 68.6 0.3 1.4 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.1 3.4 1.4 69.6 68.3 2.4 4.6 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 4.3 4.7 1.7 1.5 73.6 70.3 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 6.5 6.9 5.9 1.6 75.6 69.4 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -0.9 -0.4 2.0 1.6 75.4 70.7 -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.1 4.0 1.4 74.1 68.0 4.0 5.6 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 6.1 6.4 2.6 1.4 73.7 68.6 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 5.8 5.9 3.0 1.4 70.8 68.2 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 4.3 4.9 2.7 1.4 73.0 69.1 2.2 3.2 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 4.0 5.3 2.0 1.2 66.1 65.7 2.4 3.6 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 6.5 6.8 4.2 1.5 72.8 69.8 4.2 5.6 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 6.3 6.2 3.9 1.3 69.6 68.7 4.3 5.1 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 6.5 6.9 2.6 1.3 67.3 67.4 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 6.0 6.4 5.7 1.4 70.0 67.1 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 3.5 3.7 2.0 1.5 74.7 68.7 1.4 3.0 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.5 6.0 1.7 76.9 71.7 4.3 5.2 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 1.0 1.2 0.4 1.7 73.6 71.0 -0.6 0.2 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 5.7 5.8 5.1 1.5 75.7 69.1 3.9 5.3 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 5.4 5.7 5.6 1.4 70.1 67.4 4.0 4.7 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 5.6 6.0 5.7 1.7 78.7 72.7 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 5.8 5.9 4.0 1.6 75.9 70.4 4.1 5.3 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.3 4.3 1.5 70.8 68.4 3.8 4.9 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 5.2 4.8 2.2 1.1 64.6 65.4 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 7.2 6.9 5.2 1.5 71.8 68.8 4.8 5.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 4.4 4.5 3.5 1.3 67.9 68.4 2.2 3.6 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 3.6 3.7 1.5 1.5 73.2 69.9 1.1 2.3 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 6.8 7.2 6.2 1.7 78.0 71.4 4.3 5.7 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------