***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 3.1 87.8 85.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 5.1 6.1 5.4 2.5 84.7 81.6 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 7.5 8.0 5.4 2.6 84.0 81.7 5.1 6.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 2.0 2.3 3.4 2.7 83.7 82.2 -1.4 0.4 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 5.5 5.7 3.8 2.7 83.2 82.3 1.2 3.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 3.8 5.0 1.5 2.6 84.7 81.9 0.8 2.3 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 5.4 6.1 5.5 2.8 87.9 84.4 3.0 4.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 -0.2 0.5 1.5 2.5 80.2 78.8 -4.9 -3.2 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 6.3 6.6 4.3 2.8 86.6 85.1 2.5 4.2 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 6.0 6.3 2.5 2.7 82.0 81.1 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 6.0 6.5 3.1 2.6 82.7 82.0 2.0 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 3.7 4.2 2.1 2.3 80.9 78.4 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 4.8 5.2 1.8 2.1 78.8 76.0 1.4 3.6 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 5.6 6.2 3.7 2.0 79.1 75.7 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 5.3 5.7 4.7 3.0 88.6 85.7 2.7 3.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 6.1 7.1 2.6 2.3 82.0 79.3 2.9 3.8 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 4.9 5.6 5.0 2.4 85.6 80.0 3.1 3.8 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 2.7 3.2 1.6 2.5 79.3 78.2 0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 5.3 5.9 5.3 2.4 83.2 80.6 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 0.8 1.1 -0.4 2.7 81.5 79.0 -2.8 -0.8 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 5.9 6.5 5.3 2.7 84.9 83.2 2.3 3.8 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 4.3 5.0 4.9 2.1 82.9 77.6 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 4.7 5.3 4.9 2.3 82.9 80.1 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 4.7 5.1 3.5 2.3 80.6 78.3 2.3 3.5 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 6.0 7.3 4.8 2.9 88.4 84.7 2.9 3.9 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 4.2 4.3 1.2 1.5 69.5 67.1 1.5 3.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 6.7 7.2 5.4 3.0 88.8 85.7 2.8 4.7 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 4.1 4.6 3.7 2.6 83.8 81.3 1.6 2.4 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 2.9 3.7 0.9 2.6 83.0 79.9 -0.8 1.1 2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 6.2 6.8 5.6 2.7 86.3 82.9 3.3 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------