***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 46.5 45.6 56.7 102.6 57.7 50.2 36.6 42.0 52.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 26.4 38.5 48.8 98.2 50.3 47.3 26.3 38.4 45.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 52.3 48.2 54.8 100.2 54.1 48.1 40.4 47.3 55.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 50.1 71.3 72.0 110.9 64.6 56.2 54.2 64.3 72.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 46.6 57.7 63.1 103.0 57.6 52.8 45.1 54.8 61.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 51.0 47.8 66.7 101.0 53.1 51.9 40.5 46.3 56.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 21.2 30.5 47.9 97.1 51.7 47.0 22.0 30.5 51.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 82.6 84.9 64.6 98.9 57.0 52.4 66.3 76.2 95.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 37.0 52.5 62.6 102.0 58.5 52.1 34.6 47.6 54.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 68.5 67.2 66.4 98.9 56.3 51.7 43.6 64.6 72.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 60.7 61.7 60.0 99.3 55.7 51.6 42.0 56.6 67.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 53.8 54.9 58.3 98.5 55.0 51.4 36.7 50.6 59.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 58.4 53.1 63.5 96.9 50.8 49.6 47.1 52.7 63.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 47.4 64.4 68.6 96.7 49.7 46.8 51.8 64.6 73.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 59.0 58.1 71.2 115.4 66.1 57.9 41.1 46.8 58.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 55.9 53.1 60.6 97.6 52.6 49.9 42.6 51.0 62.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 22.7 33.6 46.9 98.1 49.7 46.9 25.9 33.7 41.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 50.1 47.6 68.1 97.6 54.8 50.5 37.9 45.8 52.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 27.8 37.1 50.8 98.7 50.7 47.4 27.8 36.4 52.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 51.7 52.7 73.2 98.9 55.9 52.6 37.2 45.2 63.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 35.1 48.4 59.5 102.2 58.1 50.5 38.9 43.4 53.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 31.2 42.9 50.6 99.5 50.8 47.4 30.9 42.7 47.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 33.8 46.7 54.0 98.3 52.3 47.1 41.4 46.2 56.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 41.2 56.1 63.0 96.1 53.0 47.6 44.2 55.1 64.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 41.8 55.0 66.5 104.6 57.9 51.5 46.5 51.0 55.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 51.4 53.7 63.8 101.5 56.8 52.2 38.9 48.5 57.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 35.1 51.8 60.3 101.6 56.2 50.0 40.3 45.0 58.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 53.5 56.5 69.1 109.9 62.8 56.3 39.9 50.6 58.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 70.7 77.8 70.1 99.2 56.0 52.1 53.3 63.8 83.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 26.1 36.4 50.4 98.4 52.3 47.3 23.6 32.0 51.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------