***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.7 15.0 15.5 102.2 58.0 51.7 7.5 10.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.0 11.1 13.1 96.4 59.4 48.9 5.6 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.2 18.7 15.7 107.7 63.9 54.2 11.3 13.9 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 21.0 20.0 16.3 96.3 53.4 51.2 14.2 19.6 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 17.7 20.0 17.5 109.8 61.1 56.6 10.9 14.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.8 11.2 18.0 101.9 57.3 53.8 7.4 10.8 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 6.0 11.2 12.2 89.4 53.9 46.4 4.9 10.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.2 17.9 107.7 61.7 54.6 19.4 25.9 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 17.5 19.7 18.4 113.4 65.1 57.5 8.8 14.8 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 19.3 21.0 19.5 111.0 63.5 56.3 12.2 18.0 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 19.3 21.3 16.3 106.8 62.1 54.8 10.5 16.9 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.2 15.5 103.9 59.7 53.2 8.2 13.8 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 22.2 20.9 17.6 104.6 60.1 54.4 12.3 19.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 20.8 22.0 22.3 119.3 66.2 56.0 14.2 18.1 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.8 15.1 14.4 86.7 54.3 48.0 9.0 14.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.5 16.2 16.4 102.3 59.0 54.2 9.4 15.1 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.3 10.9 12.0 91.3 55.2 44.7 5.3 10.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 15.8 17.4 21.2 115.0 65.4 58.1 10.3 14.6 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.1 14.8 14.5 103.6 62.1 51.1 6.4 10.6 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 15.0 22.2 116.5 66.0 58.1 8.7 10.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.0 21.3 17.0 111.3 63.3 55.3 9.4 15.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.6 12.6 13.7 98.1 60.0 46.7 6.8 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.1 18.8 16.5 111.9 63.6 52.9 7.8 12.1 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.2 19.7 19.6 114.3 65.0 56.3 9.7 14.6 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.7 18.5 17.7 104.5 57.2 52.4 7.8 16.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.8 16.9 106.8 59.3 55.9 4.9 13.0 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.4 15.0 16.3 100.3 57.4 50.9 8.8 13.6 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 14.4 15.9 15.4 92.2 54.7 50.5 6.9 11.4 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 22.0 27.4 22.1 119.8 68.0 59.4 13.1 20.0 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.7 12.7 13.6 96.7 58.3 50.1 5.0 11.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------