***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.9 15.9 128.6 69.0 58.4 5.4 8.7 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.7 14.7 14.9 133.8 70.6 58.9 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.1 15.1 15.6 129.3 70.7 59.1 6.3 9.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.3 21.3 16.1 114.1 66.3 56.1 8.5 17.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.9 16.7 16.2 115.5 69.1 56.1 4.8 9.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.2 12.5 14.8 95.4 58.8 50.7 3.2 7.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.1 10.4 14.4 130.7 71.2 58.2 1.9 3.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 21.1 22.7 16.2 109.1 65.8 55.9 10.0 18.4 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.7 13.3 16.7 116.6 68.9 56.2 5.0 9.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.1 17.4 17.5 114.0 67.9 57.0 8.0 12.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.6 14.6 14.5 109.4 66.0 54.6 4.9 7.4 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.4 13.8 103.7 63.8 53.1 3.0 8.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.8 13.1 15.3 102.9 63.5 53.5 3.8 7.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.9 22.9 20.8 129.3 72.4 58.8 9.7 16.9 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.1 14.3 109.7 65.9 53.8 1.5 7.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.5 14.1 102.1 62.5 52.4 3.5 8.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.8 13.2 14.1 131.8 71.3 58.1 3.3 4.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.6 18.2 18.6 115.3 68.7 57.5 5.7 11.3 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.2 17.1 15.5 135.6 70.7 59.2 5.8 9.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.7 19.9 114.7 64.8 57.6 6.1 9.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.6 15.9 120.6 70.8 57.1 5.3 8.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 14.4 15.5 135.1 72.4 59.2 6.0 8.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 18.6 20.0 16.5 136.4 72.5 59.3 6.7 10.1 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.4 19.4 17.9 120.7 71.8 57.9 8.0 10.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.9 15.9 17.2 120.1 69.5 56.8 6.4 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.8 14.5 104.4 63.3 51.8 3.5 8.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.0 13.7 16.4 121.9 68.0 56.8 6.0 9.8 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.1 15.0 14.8 109.4 66.3 54.8 3.1 10.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.1 19.6 19.0 115.2 67.3 57.7 8.9 13.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.6 11.6 15.0 130.9 70.1 58.9 3.9 6.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------