***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 0.9 1.8 10.8 81.3 49.7 43.8 0.6 1.8 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.1 9.0 76.7 48.6 43.1 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.8 10.5 78.4 50.3 42.2 2.5 4.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.2 13.4 87.1 54.5 46.9 6.9 9.1 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.9 5.4 12.7 85.2 51.2 45.9 2.4 4.9 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.1 14.4 86.8 51.6 46.5 3.9 7.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.8 9.5 81.4 50.8 45.1 0.5 3.4 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.1 13.7 88.8 52.0 46.7 4.9 9.5 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.9 12.6 85.1 53.6 45.7 1.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.4 13.4 86.5 50.7 45.7 2.4 5.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.7 12.1 80.4 46.7 42.5 1.5 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.1 12.7 86.3 52.0 45.7 2.4 5.8 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.7 12.9 76.8 45.9 41.7 3.0 5.1 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.2 12.9 79.5 48.8 43.0 2.2 4.2 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.4 12.9 85.4 57.7 47.6 3.4 7.4 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.7 13.0 82.2 48.2 44.7 2.3 5.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.1 8.8 77.4 50.2 43.8 0.7 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 1.5 3.4 14.1 89.7 52.8 46.7 1.4 3.2 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.4 2.6 9.2 75.5 48.3 42.4 0.7 3.0 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.7 15.3 89.0 53.3 45.7 3.0 7.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.4 11.8 83.0 53.5 44.7 0.8 5.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.3 2.9 9.3 78.4 50.8 44.5 1.3 2.9 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.3 5.0 9.7 74.4 48.2 41.6 2.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.1 12.9 84.3 51.0 44.6 2.1 6.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.5 13.4 86.3 53.8 45.3 3.1 5.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.3 14.7 89.1 53.9 47.3 1.9 7.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.7 12.3 85.6 53.3 45.2 1.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.1 13.5 88.2 56.3 48.4 2.9 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 9.1 14.7 91.0 53.2 46.9 5.9 8.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.6 9.5 78.1 49.4 43.4 1.0 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------