***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.3 7.4 14.5 100.0 54.3 47.0 2.7 6.8 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.2 11.8 89.2 51.9 45.6 2.1 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.8 5.5 13.0 88.8 53.0 44.0 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 15.9 18.9 26.1 141.3 77.3 62.5 4.5 7.0 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.9 16.7 101.7 61.1 49.7 2.9 7.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.3 15.6 19.5 120.2 66.8 55.9 6.7 9.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.1 11.8 91.0 52.6 46.0 1.6 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.3 16.8 16.8 91.3 54.8 47.9 7.5 16.1 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.6 14.9 93.2 55.4 46.7 1.2 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.9 16.0 85.4 51.8 45.2 3.5 8.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.9 13.8 17.1 102.0 61.7 50.3 3.8 8.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.9 13.1 16.4 100.7 60.3 51.1 3.9 9.4 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.7 15.7 17.7 103.9 62.4 52.4 6.6 9.9 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 4.3 8.0 12.7 63.6 35.9 35.7 7.3 11.0 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 12.9 18.9 29.6 175.0 83.0 69.0 1.2 4.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.6 10.4 17.2 103.9 61.3 51.4 2.0 9.5 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.1 5.2 12.0 95.5 53.5 48.0 2.1 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.8 7.9 14.2 72.8 43.7 40.1 6.6 8.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.2 6.8 11.7 83.9 49.3 43.6 1.9 6.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.6 15.7 77.8 45.9 42.5 6.2 8.2 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.4 8.0 14.9 95.5 56.3 46.4 3.0 7.1 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.4 6.0 12.2 89.5 52.7 46.4 3.3 5.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 3.1 4.8 11.4 75.3 42.6 40.2 3.3 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.7 7.5 12.6 69.2 41.8 38.3 5.0 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.5 9.8 18.3 108.2 61.3 50.6 3.7 7.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.0 17.7 106.3 62.3 53.3 3.3 5.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.5 7.1 15.3 99.9 54.6 47.8 2.3 5.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 11.6 14.9 25.4 146.3 77.5 63.7 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.6 11.4 14.3 73.3 44.1 40.2 9.5 12.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.9 12.2 91.0 52.2 45.1 1.6 4.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------