***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 15.1 15.7 14.0 -0.6 36.0 40.0 15.5 16.2 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.7 13.9 -0.5 35.9 41.2 15.5 16.6 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 15.4 16.2 14.1 -0.7 34.6 38.7 15.9 16.9 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 7.5 8.0 11.0 -1.0 31.5 34.9 8.0 9.3 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 15.7 16.0 12.2 -0.9 32.8 35.8 16.0 17.3 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.1 10.2 -1.0 33.2 36.3 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.0 15.8 13.9 -0.5 36.9 41.7 15.5 16.4 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.2 3.8 10.6 -0.9 34.1 37.1 3.6 4.6 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 15.2 15.5 12.8 -0.9 34.4 36.2 15.5 16.7 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 15.5 15.6 11.4 -0.9 34.5 36.8 15.6 17.0 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 15.4 15.7 12.2 -1.0 33.3 35.4 15.7 17.1 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 14.5 14.9 11.6 -0.9 34.2 36.6 14.9 16.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 15.9 16.0 11.5 -0.8 35.3 37.7 15.8 17.3 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.2 15.9 12.8 -0.8 35.7 38.0 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.3 15.2 12.5 -0.9 31.5 35.5 15.3 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 15.8 16.2 11.7 -0.9 34.1 36.5 16.0 17.5 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 14.3 15.0 13.7 -0.5 36.8 41.8 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 15.0 15.1 11.0 -0.8 35.2 38.1 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.1 15.7 14.1 -0.5 35.7 40.8 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.5 8.8 -0.4 39.9 43.1 10.0 11.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 15.4 15.8 13.6 -0.9 34.8 36.8 15.8 16.9 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 15.1 15.7 13.8 -0.5 36.7 41.8 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.1 14.1 -0.6 36.3 40.0 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 15.0 15.7 12.7 -0.8 35.5 37.4 15.6 16.6 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 15.4 15.6 12.5 -0.7 34.9 38.6 15.5 16.8 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 15.2 15.6 10.8 -0.7 36.2 39.0 15.4 16.4 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 15.5 16.1 13.4 -0.5 36.9 40.9 15.5 16.7 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 15.3 15.6 11.6 -1.0 31.2 34.7 15.7 16.8 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.2 10.3 -0.6 37.0 39.8 9.7 11.3 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 15.2 15.8 14.0 -0.5 35.2 41.0 15.5 16.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------