***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.8 16.7 0.5 55.8 52.6 15.5 16.3 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.2 16.5 0.5 55.7 52.9 14.8 16.6 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.5 16.4 16.9 0.3 54.3 51.3 15.3 16.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.6 14.4 0.3 55.4 51.4 8.3 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.1 17.3 15.0 0.1 53.9 49.4 15.7 17.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 14.2 15.9 13.1 0.1 54.3 50.2 14.2 15.4 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.6 17.0 16.5 0.5 55.0 52.8 14.8 16.2 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.0 5.1 13.5 0.1 53.1 49.3 3.0 5.1 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 14.6 16.8 15.4 0.1 52.5 49.4 15.0 16.7 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 14.3 16.7 14.3 0.1 51.9 49.1 15.4 16.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 14.7 17.1 14.9 0.0 52.9 48.7 15.1 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 13.5 15.9 14.5 0.0 53.4 49.1 14.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.8 13.6 0.0 53.4 49.2 15.1 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 14.6 16.7 15.2 0.1 51.3 49.6 15.0 16.6 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 15.2 0.5 56.9 53.0 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 15.4 17.1 14.3 0.0 53.7 49.3 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.5 16.3 0.6 56.7 53.4 14.1 15.7 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 13.4 15.9 13.8 0.1 51.2 49.3 14.6 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.8 16.7 0.5 55.4 52.4 14.8 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.8 11.0 11.2 0.2 53.2 50.9 8.7 10.7 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.8 17.0 16.2 0.3 53.7 50.4 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.8 16.7 16.4 0.6 58.7 53.6 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.9 16.5 16.8 0.4 53.2 51.4 15.0 16.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 14.0 16.0 15.2 0.1 51.9 49.6 15.1 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.8 15.1 0.4 54.4 52.1 15.7 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 14.6 16.0 13.4 0.0 53.5 49.4 14.6 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.7 16.7 16.0 0.5 55.6 52.7 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.0 14.7 0.3 56.2 51.6 15.4 16.6 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 8.3 10.5 12.9 0.0 50.8 49.4 9.0 10.4 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.8 16.6 0.5 55.3 52.5 14.9 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------