***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.6 15.7 0.6 52.5 55.0 14.4 16.6 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.1 15.5 0.6 55.0 55.7 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.3 16.0 0.6 53.2 55.2 14.7 17.2 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.1 10.7 13.5 0.6 52.9 54.4 7.1 10.5 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 18.3 18.3 14.3 0.6 51.8 54.3 14.9 17.7 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 17.3 17.6 12.4 0.7 52.6 53.8 14.3 16.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.0 15.4 0.5 53.7 54.3 14.7 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 5.8 5.6 12.9 0.6 51.4 53.6 3.0 5.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.0 14.6 0.6 51.5 54.7 14.9 16.9 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 18.2 18.3 13.6 0.6 51.6 54.3 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 17.9 18.0 14.2 0.6 52.2 54.1 15.2 17.4 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 17.4 17.8 13.8 0.6 52.5 53.7 14.2 17.0 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 17.7 18.4 13.0 0.7 51.8 53.6 15.3 17.3 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.5 16.9 14.5 0.5 51.5 53.6 14.6 16.8 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 18.2 18.1 14.3 0.6 53.8 54.8 15.8 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 18.4 18.4 13.7 0.6 52.3 54.0 15.5 18.0 20.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.4 15.2 0.5 53.9 54.6 14.2 16.1 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 17.3 16.9 13.2 0.6 51.7 53.8 14.4 16.7 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.0 15.8 0.6 55.1 55.9 14.5 16.5 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 12.8 12.7 10.5 0.7 55.0 54.6 9.4 12.3 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.4 15.4 0.6 52.2 54.7 15.2 17.0 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.2 15.4 0.6 54.8 55.3 14.7 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.9 15.9 0.6 54.1 55.5 14.7 16.5 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.5 16.8 14.5 0.5 51.0 53.9 14.4 16.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.5 14.1 0.5 52.8 54.3 15.2 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 17.2 17.6 12.8 0.6 51.0 53.1 14.8 16.8 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.2 14.9 0.5 52.5 54.6 15.0 17.1 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 18.1 18.2 13.9 0.6 53.2 54.8 15.9 17.6 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.4 12.2 0.6 52.3 53.4 9.5 12.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 17.3 16.9 15.6 0.6 54.5 55.6 14.6 16.7 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------