***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 12.0 11.4 8.6 -4.4 15.3 17.7 12.5 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 11.6 11.0 8.8 -4.2 16.0 17.6 13.1 15.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 12.5 11.6 8.5 -4.7 14.6 17.0 13.8 15.5 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 4.4 3.5 4.5 -5.4 13.5 14.4 5.0 6.7 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 12.3 11.0 6.4 -5.2 13.9 15.6 13.6 15.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 11.5 10.8 4.8 -5.1 13.1 17.5 12.2 14.4 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 11.3 11.0 9.0 -3.9 17.6 18.9 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 1.0 0.4 4.9 -4.8 17.1 19.4 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 12.4 11.8 7.4 -5.2 14.3 15.8 13.3 15.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 13.0 12.1 5.6 -5.1 15.1 17.8 13.0 15.7 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 12.6 11.2 6.7 -5.3 13.1 16.6 12.9 15.3 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 11.7 11.0 5.9 -4.8 15.9 18.8 12.0 14.1 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 12.8 11.8 7.0 -4.6 16.7 20.8 13.0 15.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 13.2 12.1 7.5 -4.8 14.6 18.9 13.5 16.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 12.6 12.3 7.1 -5.2 11.5 13.5 13.5 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 12.6 11.7 6.4 -5.0 14.3 17.9 13.5 15.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 10.5 10.1 8.6 -4.0 16.0 17.5 12.3 13.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 12.4 11.9 5.2 -4.7 17.8 19.8 12.6 15.4 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 11.7 11.0 8.8 -4.3 15.0 17.5 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 7.2 6.6 4.1 -3.5 23.7 25.7 7.6 9.4 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 12.3 11.3 8.1 -5.1 13.6 15.7 13.4 15.5 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 11.5 10.9 8.6 -4.2 14.3 16.6 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 12.9 12.3 8.7 -4.5 14.0 18.0 13.5 15.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 12.6 11.6 7.3 -4.9 15.5 18.0 13.2 16.0 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 12.3 11.9 7.3 -4.7 15.1 16.9 13.2 14.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 12.4 12.1 6.0 -3.9 20.9 23.3 12.7 14.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 12.3 11.8 8.3 -4.2 16.3 18.6 13.8 15.1 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 12.3 11.4 5.5 -5.4 12.6 13.9 13.7 14.5 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 6.9 6.1 5.0 -4.2 20.5 22.7 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 11.8 11.2 8.8 -4.2 15.7 18.0 13.5 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------