***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.3 5.2 -0.2 41.8 45.7 4.5 5.4 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.0 4.9 4.8 -0.3 40.7 43.8 4.7 5.0 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.2 7.1 5.1 -0.3 39.3 43.4 6.9 7.4 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.2 2.5 -0.3 41.4 44.0 1.0 1.4 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.1 4.2 3.0 -0.3 39.2 42.7 3.1 4.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.3 0.9 0.0 45.4 48.0 2.7 3.4 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.3 4.9 4.8 -0.2 40.1 44.4 4.7 5.3 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -2.3 0.9 -0.1 42.7 47.0 -2.5 -1.9 -1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.1 4.6 3.2 -0.2 38.6 44.6 4.3 5.2 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.8 1.7 -0.1 41.7 46.0 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.9 4.7 2.4 -0.3 39.6 43.7 3.9 5.0 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.7 3.5 1.7 -0.2 39.7 43.9 3.1 3.7 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.2 1.4 -0.3 40.3 43.0 3.8 4.4 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.6 5.0 2.9 -0.3 40.0 43.7 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.0 3.8 -0.2 44.0 45.9 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.5 5.1 1.9 -0.3 39.0 42.6 4.7 5.4 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.2 4.5 -0.3 40.1 43.3 4.6 5.4 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.1 2.8 1.0 0.0 43.1 47.1 2.3 2.9 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 4.7 4.8 -0.2 41.2 44.4 4.3 5.2 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 0.5 0.3 -0.6 0.2 48.1 51.4 -0.5 0.3 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.8 4.7 4.4 -0.3 38.3 43.3 4.1 5.3 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 4.4 4.5 -0.3 40.4 43.8 4.2 4.6 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.5 4.7 -0.2 42.2 45.6 3.9 5.0 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.7 2.9 -0.2 40.0 44.6 4.3 5.0 5.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.0 4.9 4.1 -0.2 43.1 45.6 4.4 5.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.1 1.1 -0.2 41.1 45.6 3.7 4.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.5 5.7 4.7 -0.2 42.8 45.7 4.9 5.9 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.9 3.5 2.8 -0.3 40.5 43.4 2.7 3.7 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 46.3 50.2 1.5 2.1 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.2 5.0 -0.2 41.0 44.3 5.0 5.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------