***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.1 5.5 1.0 62.0 60.7 3.9 4.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.3 5.1 0.9 59.3 59.8 4.4 5.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.9 5.5 0.9 61.8 60.7 6.6 7.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.8 1.8 2.6 0.8 59.0 59.3 0.1 1.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.4 3.3 0.7 59.0 59.1 2.5 3.7 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.2 0.6 0.4 53.2 55.2 1.4 3.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.5 5.2 0.9 60.2 60.1 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -2.0 1.0 0.9 57.3 59.9 -3.0 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.6 3.5 0.7 59.5 60.2 4.0 4.6 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.5 1.8 0.8 58.6 60.1 3.8 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.2 2.6 0.6 56.5 57.7 3.2 4.0 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 3.0 3.2 1.9 0.7 54.6 58.1 1.6 2.5 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.5 1.3 0.2 48.8 53.0 2.5 3.6 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.7 3.3 0.9 59.9 60.4 4.4 5.6 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.2 3.7 0.5 57.2 57.6 4.0 4.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.3 2.0 0.4 53.1 55.8 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.7 4.9 0.8 59.0 59.4 4.5 5.2 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.8 1.3 1.0 62.2 61.8 1.6 2.4 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.5 5.2 0.9 61.2 60.8 4.0 5.3 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 0.6 0.5 -0.3 1.2 61.9 62.9 -0.9 0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.5 5.4 4.7 0.8 60.3 59.8 3.5 4.0 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.8 5.0 0.9 61.0 60.5 3.6 4.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.0 5.1 1.0 64.3 62.6 3.2 4.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.5 3.2 0.9 61.9 60.7 3.4 4.4 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.5 4.5 1.0 61.8 60.1 3.7 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.9 1.0 0.5 53.7 55.6 2.6 3.7 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.3 5.1 1.0 60.6 59.7 4.2 5.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.3 2.7 0.5 55.0 56.5 1.7 3.0 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 3.0 2.6 0.8 1.2 63.5 63.4 1.3 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.8 5.4 0.9 60.7 60.5 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------