***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 1.8 0.9 1.3 -2.7 20.1 25.2 2.8 4.4 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 1.5 1.8 0.9 -2.6 21.9 23.8 2.6 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 4.0 4.0 1.2 -2.8 18.9 23.2 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -2.7 -2.3 -1.2 -2.8 21.9 22.4 -1.9 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -2.8 20.3 23.7 1.8 3.2 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 -0.4 0.4 -2.1 -2.0 25.1 30.2 1.3 2.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.1 1.7 0.9 -2.6 23.1 24.2 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -5.9 -5.4 -2.5 -2.3 24.2 27.7 -4.3 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.1 1.5 0.0 -2.4 21.3 26.1 2.6 4.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.3 1.7 -1.7 -2.4 23.3 27.4 2.4 4.2 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.0 1.6 -0.6 -2.5 21.4 25.3 2.3 3.8 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 0.0 -0.6 -1.7 -2.7 20.6 24.2 1.4 2.0 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 0.9 0.2 -1.4 -2.6 19.3 25.0 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.2 2.1 -0.8 -2.8 19.9 24.4 2.9 3.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.9 2.0 0.9 -2.1 21.1 26.2 3.1 3.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 1.5 1.2 -1.2 -2.8 19.8 23.5 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 2.2 2.0 0.5 -2.7 21.6 22.6 3.0 3.6 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 0.2 -0.1 -2.5 -2.5 24.1 27.1 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 1.8 1.3 0.9 -2.6 20.8 23.6 2.7 3.5 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 -3.0 -2.6 -3.8 -2.2 27.9 30.9 -2.4 -1.0 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 1.4 0.6 0.8 -2.7 18.5 23.6 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 1.6 1.0 0.7 -2.7 19.9 22.1 2.3 3.3 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 1.2 1.2 0.8 -2.6 21.2 24.0 2.2 3.2 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.3 -0.6 -2.6 20.8 25.1 2.0 3.6 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.6 0.8 0.8 -2.6 21.9 25.8 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 0.8 0.7 -1.8 -2.3 22.4 28.4 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 1.5 1.0 1.0 -2.7 20.5 25.4 3.4 4.6 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -2.7 19.7 22.7 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -1.6 -0.7 -3.1 -2.1 28.8 31.4 -0.4 0.4 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 2.2 2.0 1.1 -2.6 21.5 24.1 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------