***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 31.2 50.4 53.0 107.4 63.8 51.0 36.6 42.0 52.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 25.5 41.1 50.8 101.6 58.9 46.9 26.3 38.4 45.0 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 38.6 54.4 55.7 106.7 62.4 49.7 40.4 47.3 55.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 49.6 71.4 64.7 110.5 64.7 55.4 54.2 64.3 72.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 46.3 60.5 63.7 111.5 64.4 55.9 45.1 54.8 61.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 52.3 63.1 77.4 115.7 69.8 60.4 40.5 46.3 56.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 20.5 33.8 49.4 100.5 54.4 47.1 22.0 30.5 51.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 93.9 98.7 71.1 116.8 72.9 61.5 66.3 76.2 95.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 37.0 53.6 63.2 110.4 63.3 53.6 34.6 47.6 54.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 47.3 75.8 71.0 112.1 68.0 57.3 43.6 64.6 72.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 68.3 69.0 62.5 115.6 70.4 59.9 42.0 56.6 67.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 59.4 63.6 63.4 120.8 75.9 63.7 36.7 50.6 59.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 69.9 68.8 70.7 119.7 72.4 63.9 47.1 52.7 63.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 45.1 70.8 70.6 106.2 60.8 50.9 51.8 64.6 73.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 38.5 58.2 62.9 111.9 66.4 55.6 41.1 46.8 58.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 65.2 65.8 65.6 116.8 70.4 61.3 42.6 51.0 62.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 21.7 34.7 48.0 98.2 52.3 45.7 25.9 33.7 41.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 50.5 55.1 78.8 111.6 68.2 57.0 37.9 45.8 52.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 26.7 43.7 52.9 103.2 60.5 47.7 27.8 36.4 52.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 35.4 63.8 85.7 112.0 66.7 59.0 37.2 45.2 63.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 34.7 53.1 57.7 109.8 64.5 52.3 38.9 43.4 53.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 29.8 43.7 50.6 98.6 53.9 46.0 30.9 42.7 47.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 32.7 47.9 57.3 105.4 60.0 49.6 41.4 46.2 56.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 41.2 63.7 70.0 109.2 65.2 53.2 44.2 55.1 64.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 41.2 55.5 62.6 107.1 61.8 52.2 46.5 51.0 55.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 57.8 61.5 68.6 122.9 75.8 64.3 38.9 48.5 57.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 33.8 54.1 58.4 105.6 60.2 50.9 40.3 45.0 58.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 40.5 58.2 63.9 111.8 65.8 56.7 39.9 50.6 58.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 51.6 90.2 82.4 113.3 70.6 58.5 53.3 63.8 83.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 25.3 39.9 51.7 103.1 58.4 48.1 23.6 32.0 51.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------