***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 9.5 10.1 77.7 46.6 45.1 7.5 10.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.0 8.6 11.1 83.2 46.9 45.1 5.6 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.9 13.0 10.3 77.5 46.3 44.4 11.3 13.9 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 21.3 19.6 11.9 76.0 50.1 43.3 14.2 19.6 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.7 14.5 11.2 78.2 48.7 43.7 10.9 14.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.3 9.0 14.7 80.2 43.3 42.9 7.4 10.8 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.5 10.3 11.1 85.3 47.8 46.1 4.9 10.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 28.5 25.8 12.8 86.4 49.7 45.7 19.4 25.9 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 8.3 14.2 10.7 76.2 47.4 42.7 8.8 14.8 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 19.8 17.4 12.6 81.0 48.0 44.2 12.2 18.0 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.2 16.9 10.7 81.6 50.1 44.5 10.5 16.9 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.7 13.5 10.8 86.4 49.3 45.5 8.2 13.8 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 10.2 19.1 12.2 80.4 45.7 42.4 12.3 19.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 11.9 19.1 13.3 81.6 52.7 44.6 14.2 18.1 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.1 14.4 11.5 71.9 51.3 43.5 9.0 14.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 8.2 15.3 11.3 79.7 50.4 43.2 9.4 15.1 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.5 10.0 11.3 85.2 48.2 46.1 5.3 10.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.1 14.1 14.2 82.9 48.7 44.7 10.3 14.6 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 9.7 10.9 80.7 47.4 44.6 6.4 10.6 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 10.5 16.0 83.6 48.3 44.8 8.7 10.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.4 13.7 9.9 75.7 47.4 43.2 9.4 15.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.9 10.3 11.3 82.6 48.9 45.3 6.8 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.9 11.8 10.9 78.7 49.1 44.0 7.8 12.1 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.9 14.7 12.7 81.4 50.4 44.5 9.7 14.6 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 18.5 15.3 11.7 74.5 47.4 42.2 7.8 16.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.7 11.7 11.1 77.7 44.9 41.1 4.9 13.0 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.6 12.8 11.4 76.8 47.1 43.8 8.8 13.6 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.4 12.1 11.6 74.4 52.1 43.3 6.9 11.4 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 15.2 20.2 14.9 86.1 51.6 45.7 13.1 20.0 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.1 10.4 10.7 81.1 46.7 45.2 5.0 11.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------