***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.4 12.1 13.5 121.9 69.5 52.0 5.4 8.7 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 12.1 12.8 111.2 67.2 47.7 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.2 15.0 13.7 117.3 70.3 50.3 6.3 9.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.5 21.6 16.6 130.5 70.2 55.1 8.5 17.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.9 16.9 16.4 126.6 69.2 54.6 4.8 9.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.0 18.9 20.9 137.4 73.3 59.9 3.2 7.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.0 6.5 12.3 107.5 64.7 46.3 1.9 3.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.5 27.2 19.1 133.6 72.1 58.3 10.0 18.4 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.5 13.2 16.2 122.5 65.7 53.3 5.0 9.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 17.6 18.4 123.2 68.6 55.0 8.0 12.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.8 17.9 16.2 130.5 70.2 56.8 4.9 7.4 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.2 17.3 17.2 144.7 74.5 60.5 3.0 8.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 17.1 21.5 19.3 147.5 74.6 62.7 3.8 7.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.9 20.4 17.0 112.7 66.6 50.1 9.7 16.9 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.6 13.6 16.1 135.8 72.8 55.0 1.5 7.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.1 19.5 17.5 140.8 73.0 59.9 3.5 8.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.5 11.8 102.5 58.1 46.3 3.3 4.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 18.9 20.6 123.1 71.9 55.5 5.7 11.3 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.6 16.8 13.2 113.5 69.2 48.7 5.8 9.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 15.6 23.7 128.7 72.8 57.9 6.1 9.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.2 14.3 119.7 66.5 52.1 5.3 8.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.6 12.9 12.6 103.9 60.4 48.2 6.0 8.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.2 19.3 13.9 114.8 71.2 49.3 6.7 10.1 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.0 19.3 17.4 117.6 70.7 52.2 8.0 10.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.1 15.5 16.5 125.4 68.5 53.5 6.4 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 16.4 18.1 18.7 146.3 75.2 62.6 3.5 8.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.3 13.1 15.4 121.4 66.8 52.1 6.0 9.8 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.7 18.9 16.2 133.9 71.2 55.8 3.1 10.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.6 23.4 21.6 124.3 71.3 55.5 8.9 13.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.2 11.3 13.1 114.8 69.4 48.7 3.9 6.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------