***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 0.9 6.3 14.2 108.3 63.1 48.6 0.6 1.8 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.5 5.8 12.9 94.5 56.6 48.3 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.1 8.5 14.0 97.8 60.7 47.7 2.5 4.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.9 15.3 97.7 56.3 47.4 6.9 9.1 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.7 15.9 101.8 59.4 48.8 2.4 4.9 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.4 19.1 103.3 58.2 48.7 3.9 7.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.5 12.8 97.0 59.0 49.0 0.5 3.4 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.8 10.6 16.4 100.6 55.2 49.1 4.9 9.5 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.0 5.9 16.3 104.8 65.7 49.4 1.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.0 17.6 104.3 59.3 50.2 2.4 5.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.8 14.9 102.1 57.9 48.8 1.5 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.5 14.1 98.6 55.4 47.7 2.4 5.8 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.2 5.7 16.2 100.1 55.5 48.5 3.0 5.1 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 2.1 7.6 18.0 94.8 60.2 46.8 2.2 4.2 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.2 13.4 90.4 55.6 46.0 3.4 7.4 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.1 15.5 101.3 56.2 48.3 2.3 5.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.8 12.2 94.0 57.0 48.5 0.7 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.5 6.0 20.2 105.5 61.0 50.5 1.4 3.2 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.3 4.8 13.2 93.7 55.4 47.7 0.7 3.0 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.8 20.7 102.6 60.2 48.9 3.0 7.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.3 10.6 15.1 106.7 66.5 49.3 0.8 5.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.2 3.4 12.9 91.9 56.3 47.3 1.3 2.9 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.2 6.6 14.3 94.8 58.9 47.4 2.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.5 17.6 99.4 61.5 48.7 2.1 6.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.9 16.7 107.9 61.4 49.6 3.1 5.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.5 14.8 98.7 60.0 49.4 1.9 7.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 6.0 15.8 109.1 62.6 49.6 1.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.2 14.7 95.0 56.9 46.9 2.9 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.3 21.3 107.2 62.8 50.7 5.9 8.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.2 3.7 13.2 96.3 56.4 48.1 1.0 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------