***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.6 15.2 124.8 70.4 58.8 2.7 6.8 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 11.0 14.1 121.7 65.8 54.9 2.1 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.0 10.9 17.7 136.9 74.8 61.0 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 14.7 21.5 20.8 144.5 79.9 65.8 4.5 7.0 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.5 14.8 20.2 141.7 76.0 63.4 2.9 7.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 15.3 19.2 22.7 152.5 80.6 68.7 6.7 9.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.4 7.7 13.2 115.0 62.1 53.8 1.6 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 24.0 28.8 22.8 147.2 77.4 65.5 7.5 16.1 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.5 12.1 20.0 138.7 70.1 61.3 1.2 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.2 15.8 22.3 140.2 72.6 63.2 3.5 8.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 16.0 20.1 20.7 148.7 77.9 65.7 3.8 8.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 16.1 20.8 21.3 154.3 79.1 67.1 3.9 9.4 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 17.8 21.8 23.0 157.2 80.1 69.0 6.6 9.9 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.9 20.2 22.2 138.6 70.6 61.1 7.3 11.0 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 12.8 19.5 21.9 161.8 83.6 68.6 1.2 4.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 13.8 16.9 21.3 149.4 79.3 66.5 2.0 9.5 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.5 7.1 12.7 114.0 63.4 51.5 2.1 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.4 23.8 135.5 72.3 61.8 6.6 8.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.8 15.6 129.4 71.2 56.9 1.9 6.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 16.7 25.2 134.5 72.8 61.5 6.2 8.2 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.5 11.0 18.4 137.3 72.2 60.6 3.0 7.1 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.8 10.9 13.8 120.0 66.0 51.9 3.3 5.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.8 16.6 18.1 137.1 76.8 59.8 3.3 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.4 14.3 22.2 140.0 72.4 62.1 5.0 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.2 17.8 125.1 65.7 58.3 3.7 7.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.7 17.9 24.0 174.3 86.3 72.7 3.3 5.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.6 9.7 15.8 118.7 64.9 57.3 2.3 5.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 11.1 16.0 21.4 152.9 81.6 67.9 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 21.5 24.6 135.5 73.1 62.1 9.5 12.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.5 9.1 14.7 124.4 67.2 57.1 1.6 4.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------