***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.7 15.0 0.3 59.4 56.7 15.5 16.2 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 17.2 17.1 14.9 0.4 65.0 58.5 15.5 16.6 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.1 15.0 0.2 58.2 55.8 15.9 16.9 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.3 12.9 -0.1 49.9 49.6 8.0 9.3 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.2 13.3 0.0 48.0 50.2 16.0 17.3 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.6 11.5 0.0 44.6 49.1 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.8 16.8 14.9 0.4 66.2 59.4 15.5 16.4 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.4 11.6 -0.3 42.0 46.2 3.6 4.6 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.6 13.9 0.0 49.4 51.4 15.5 16.7 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.6 12.5 -0.1 45.2 48.6 15.6 17.0 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.8 13.0 -0.1 45.7 49.5 15.7 17.1 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 14.7 16.0 12.4 -0.2 43.7 46.3 14.9 16.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 15.7 16.9 12.2 -0.1 43.8 47.9 15.8 17.3 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.8 13.9 0.1 56.1 54.0 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.7 13.5 0.0 52.3 50.8 15.3 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 16.0 17.3 12.7 0.0 46.0 49.8 16.0 17.5 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.0 14.7 0.4 66.3 59.5 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.0 11.8 -0.2 44.1 47.9 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.6 17.0 15.0 0.3 63.8 57.8 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.4 9.2 -0.5 38.4 43.6 10.0 11.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.1 14.6 0.1 53.7 53.1 15.8 16.9 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.9 17.0 14.8 0.4 65.8 58.9 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.2 14.9 0.3 61.4 56.6 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.6 13.6 0.1 51.7 52.5 15.6 16.6 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.9 13.6 0.2 57.7 54.8 15.5 16.8 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 15.0 15.7 11.4 -0.4 36.9 43.6 15.4 16.4 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.9 17.1 14.3 0.3 61.0 57.4 15.5 16.7 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.6 13.2 -0.1 47.8 49.1 15.7 16.8 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 11.0 10.7 -0.2 43.9 47.6 9.7 11.3 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.8 15.0 0.4 64.1 58.0 15.5 16.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------