***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 17.9 18.1 17.6 1.2 71.7 62.7 15.5 16.3 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 17.8 17.9 17.4 1.2 71.2 62.5 14.8 16.6 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 17.7 18.0 17.7 1.2 70.9 62.1 15.3 16.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.2 16.0 1.0 68.4 61.6 8.3 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 17.7 17.8 16.3 1.1 65.9 61.9 15.7 17.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.3 14.5 1.0 66.9 60.9 14.2 15.4 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 17.6 17.7 17.4 1.2 70.7 62.9 14.8 16.2 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.5 14.8 1.1 66.9 61.9 3.0 5.1 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.2 16.7 1.1 65.5 61.8 15.0 16.7 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 17.3 17.4 15.6 1.1 66.2 61.7 15.4 16.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 17.6 17.5 15.9 1.1 67.3 61.9 15.1 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 16.7 17.0 15.6 1.1 67.6 61.8 14.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 17.9 17.9 15.2 1.0 68.9 61.8 15.1 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 18.0 17.3 16.4 1.2 69.1 61.1 15.0 16.6 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 17.6 17.6 16.2 0.9 67.5 61.2 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 18.1 17.9 15.6 1.0 67.9 61.4 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.1 17.4 17.2 1.2 71.2 62.5 14.1 15.7 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 17.3 17.3 15.0 1.2 67.3 61.7 14.6 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 17.3 17.6 17.5 1.2 71.3 62.2 14.8 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 12.3 11.9 12.7 1.1 68.7 61.9 8.7 10.7 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 17.7 17.9 17.3 1.1 68.3 61.9 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 17.5 17.5 17.3 1.3 71.5 62.0 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 17.7 17.8 17.5 1.2 70.8 61.7 15.0 16.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 17.6 17.6 16.4 1.2 68.9 61.6 15.1 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 17.5 17.7 16.3 1.1 71.5 62.6 15.7 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.0 14.8 0.9 67.6 61.0 14.6 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 17.6 17.7 16.9 1.2 71.4 62.9 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 17.5 17.3 16.2 0.9 66.9 61.1 15.4 16.6 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.1 14.0 1.2 68.1 61.7 9.0 10.4 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.7 17.8 17.6 1.2 72.0 62.5 14.9 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------