***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 17.2 16.5 15.5 -0.1 47.9 49.8 14.4 16.6 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.4 15.4 0.0 47.7 50.1 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.1 15.5 -0.2 47.5 48.5 14.7 17.2 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.4 13.7 -0.4 46.5 47.7 7.1 10.5 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.4 16.6 13.8 -0.5 45.0 46.2 14.9 17.7 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.8 15.9 11.7 -0.9 42.4 43.4 14.3 16.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.5 15.4 0.0 47.8 50.7 14.7 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.0 12.0 -0.9 42.0 43.2 3.0 5.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 17.5 16.4 14.3 -0.5 45.3 46.3 14.9 16.9 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.3 16.3 12.9 -0.7 44.0 44.4 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 18.1 16.0 13.3 -0.7 43.5 44.8 15.2 17.4 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.7 14.5 12.9 -0.9 41.7 43.0 14.2 17.0 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.2 15.9 12.3 -1.0 40.3 42.4 15.3 17.3 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.6 15.7 14.2 -0.4 44.8 47.3 14.6 16.8 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.3 17.7 14.0 -0.2 47.8 48.4 15.8 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.7 16.5 12.9 -0.8 42.8 44.0 15.5 18.0 20.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.8 15.2 0.0 46.7 51.0 14.2 16.1 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.4 15.5 12.3 -0.8 43.1 44.2 14.4 16.7 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.3 15.5 -0.1 47.3 49.4 14.5 16.5 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.7 9.6 9.7 -1.1 37.3 41.6 9.4 12.3 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.6 16.5 15.0 -0.3 46.6 47.5 15.2 17.0 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.0 15.9 15.3 0.0 46.0 50.6 14.7 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.1 15.4 -0.2 45.8 48.6 14.7 16.5 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.5 15.5 14.0 -0.4 44.6 46.3 14.4 16.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.2 14.1 -0.1 49.5 49.3 15.2 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.0 11.9 -1.0 37.9 40.9 14.8 16.8 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.0 14.8 0.0 48.0 50.1 15.0 17.1 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 18.2 17.4 13.8 -0.4 46.6 46.7 15.9 17.6 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 9.9 11.2 -0.9 41.2 43.7 9.5 12.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.5 15.5 -0.1 47.7 49.8 14.6 16.7 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------